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Kerry's year of unfulfilled hopes for Middle East

US Secretary of State John Kerry had optimistic goals for the region, several of which were not realised
US Secretary of State John Kerry at Mattrah souk in Muscat, Oman on 10 November (AFP)

The trouble with setting ambitious deadlines, especially in the unpredictable world of high-stakes foreign diplomacy, is that you run the risk of very public failure.

Last year, top US diplomat John Kerry gave himself and the Obama administration several lofty goals, any of which would have been a ground-breaking achievement.

Here is how they panned out and why, as Kerry prepares this week for his first foreign trip of 2015, his diplomatic in-tray is not getting any smaller.

Palestinian-Israeli peace

Within a few months of taking over as US secretary of state in 2013, Kerry had persuaded the Israelis and Palestinians to resume moribund peace talks.

The goal: A comprehensive peace treaty for a two-state solution, which has eluded the two sides for decades, by 29 April 2014.

The reality: In almost a bad April Fool's Day joke, both Israel and the Palestinians pulled the plug on Kerry's dogged efforts on 1 April 2014. After weeks of stalemate, Israel announced plans for 700 new settlements, and the Palestinians said they would seek membership of 15 UN agencies.

Today: Peace talks have collapsed, and the 50-day Gaza war killed 2,200 Palestinians and 73 Israelis. Relations between the two sides are at a new low with no prospect of new negotiations.

Iran nuclear deal

After then-senator Kerry helped instigate secret talks with Iran in 2012, the new Iranian leadership under President Hassan Rouhani agreed to return to stalemated negotiations.

The goal: A comprehensive treaty preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon in return for an easing of crippling international sanctions by 20 July 2014.

The reality: Despite intense and complex negotiations the deadline had to be extended to 24 November. But the so-called P5+1 group of powers leading the talks with Iran failed to make the second date, with the question of Iranian uranium enrichment and the sanctions easing seemingly at the heart of the discord.

Today: There is a new deadline for a deal of 1 July 2015, although Kerry has said he hopes for an outline accord by sometime in March. Talks should resume this month.

Syria chemical weapons

After an August 2013 sarin gas attack reportedly killed as many as 1,400 civilians in a Damascus suburb, the regime avoided a US missile attack by pledging to hand over all its chemical weapons.

The goal: In a deal hammered out between Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, Damascus was to transfer a newly declared stock of 1,300 metric tonnes of chemical weapons by 30 June 2014.

The reality: The transfer to UN arms inspectors was completed on 3 July, and the chemical agents all destroyed by August 18 on board a US Navy ship. However, the destruction of Syria's production facilities -- including 12 hangers and tunnels -- has been hit by delays and is now not expected before June, according to the regime. 

Today: Despite the success of destroying its chemical weapons, Syria is mired in a bloody civil war that has killed more than 200,000 people since March 2011. Tentative peace talks collapsed in January, and there is no date for new negotiations.

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