The view from Iran: If Assad were to fall, where would that leave Iran's position in Syria and Lebanon?

Armin Montazeri, foreign policy editor at Hammihan Daily, an Iranian newspaper, spoke to Middle East Eye on the fast unfolding events in Syria and the view from Tehran:

I think everybody in Iran believes that Assad will fall, and it's just a matter of time. I think the Doha negotiations, the meeting held today in Doha, were aimed at managing the unwanted consequences of such a fall. As for the questions: if Assad falls, naturally, the path from Syria to Lebanon will no longer work for Iran to support Hezbollah, leaving Hezbollah isolated.

This is because any government in Syria after Assad will undoubtedly fall under Turkey's influence. We all know that Turkey has relations with Israel and America and motives to play the "Syria card" in its power dynamics with the United States.

Therefore, any new power in Syria will not permit Iran to assist Hezbollah through Syria's borders. Before all of this unfolds, though, we need to see whether Iran will retain a strong political position in Syria after Assad, similar to the one it had before. Additionally, Israel will likely monitor these routes more closely than ever, particularly those along the Lebanese and Syrian borders.

Hezbollah has suffered significant blows over the past three months and has even agreed to a ceasefire. It can be assumed that Hezbollah will face increased pressure from its opponents within Lebanon due to the absence of Iranian support. I think we will see Hezbollah pushed into a corner in the coming months or the next year.

As for Syria, it's still too early to predict definitively. However, given the experience of Syria's civil war in recent years and the number of foreign players involved—Turkey, the USA, Russia, Iran, and the Arab states—there is a strong possibility that another power struggle will emerge, with all these players pulling their strings simultaneously.

Additionally, the structure of the Sunni rebels in Syria is not very unified. They have internal differences that could deepen as soon as they come to power. If that happens, Syria might plunge into a very different kind of civil war.

One thing is certain, though: in the coming years, Syria will become a battleground for intense competition between Iran and Turkey. This competition could even spill over into Iraq.