As Chad and Senegal end military ties with Paris, is France finished in the Sahel?

“After 66 years since the independence of the Republic of Chad, it is time for Chad to assert its full sovereignty, and to redefine its strategic partnerships according to national priorities,” Chad’s foreign minister, Abderaman Koulamallah, declared on 28 November.

With that statement, Chad announced the abrupt termination of its defence cooperation agreement with France, severing ties with one of its closest military allies.

On the same day Chad made the announcement, Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who won elections in March, called for the removal of French military bases from Senegal.

“Senegal is an independent country; it is a sovereign country, and sovereignty does not accept the presence of military bases in a sovereign country,” Faye stated.

These developments mark a pivotal shift in the relationship between France and its former colonies, highlighting the erosion of Paris’s influence in the region alongside the rise of local African leaders and restive populations seeking to challenge French dominance.

Around 1,000 French troops stationed in Chad are now expected to leave, adding to withdrawals from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger following coups in those nations in the past few years.

For decades, France maintained its influence through close ties with local elites, Ovigwe Eguegu, a policy analyst at Development Reimagined, told Middle East Eye.

Eguegu emphasised how this dynamic persisted under the framework of so-called Francafrique, which ensured France’s favoured status in the continent’s economic, security and development matters.

'What is often labelled as anti-French sentiment is, in reality, a call for sovereignty and self-determination'

- Ovigwe Eguegu, policy analyst at Development Reimagined

“Over the last three to four years - building on a decade of growing dissatisfaction - this relationship has come under significant strain,” Eguegu said. He pointed to France's repeated inability to achieve tangible security outcomes, noting that continued instability became “the final straw”.

In 2013, France’s then-President Francois Hollande was celebrated in Mali for Operation Serval, a military intervention launched following a UN Security Council Resolution and a request for military assistance from Bamako that pushed back militant groups wreaking havoc in the region.

Hollande touted the mission as a blueprint for future cooperation, and the following year, the G5 Sahel - a regional security and development initiative - was established with French backing.

Yet, by 2024, France’s legacy in the region has dramatically soured. Not only would a French president no longer receive such a warm welcome, but Paris is now widely viewed as having failed to "deliver meaningful results," said Eguegu.

“For example, Burkina Faso, a member of the G5 Sahel, lost 40 percent of its territory to jihadists during its participation. How can leaders justify maintaining France as their preferred security partner when such outcomes persist?” he added.

Failure of French intervention

French-led interventions failed to stem violence but also allowed various rebel factions to undermine central governments. 

Meanwhile, poverty, displacement, corruption, ethnic tensions and thousands of casualties from ongoing conflicts the region has experienced for over a decade fostered local discontent as well as the popular perception that France has fuelled regional instability.

The foreign actors lining up to replace France in the Sahel

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“For many, French influence has been overbearing - whether in monetary policy, security or other domains,” said Eguegu.

Through the CFA franc monetary system, 14 African nations, including Senegal and Chad, remain bound by monetary dependence on France and by extension the Eurozone - regions struggling with prolonged economic stagnation. This outdated framework is increasingly viewed as a restrictive relic of colonialism, and calls to reform or abandon it entirely have intensified.

“What is often labelled as anti-French sentiment is, in reality, a call for sovereignty and self-determination. People want their countries to control their own problems and solutions. Leaders like Ibrahim Traore in Burkina Faso, for example, emphasise indigenous development and self-reliance, rhetoric that resonates deeply with the populace,” he added.

Against this backdrop of a fast-changing Sahel, France’s political class appears distracted by multiple crises, including the Ukraine war and the rise of the far right. The country’s increasingly volatile internal politics has only added to the sense of drift. 

Erosion of French influence

Last week, the French government collapsed after Prime Minister Michel Barnier was removed from office in a decisive no-confidence vote.

Members of parliament overwhelmingly backed the motion against Barnier, ending his tenure just three months after his appointment by Macron following snap parliamentary elections called by the president last summer that gave way to one of the most unstable periods of the fifth republic.

'The French political elite's response to declining influence in West Africa and the Sahel has been marked by a striking degree of apathy'

- Arnaud Bertrand, political observer

These developments have been scrutinised in the Sahel, where states have noted Macron's inability to maintain to chart a clear path for his country. 

“The French political elite's response to declining influence in West Africa and the Sahel has been marked by a striking degree of apathy,” Arnaud Bertrand, a French political observer, told MEE.

The rightward shift in French political circles has “eroded the traditional institutional knowledge and connections with Africa and the Arab world that France once maintained. Basically, the memories are there, but the emotional and practical connections have withered,” Bertrand added.

When France’s far-right opposition leader, Marine Le Pen, visited Senegal in 2023, she faced significant backlash.

Many in Senegal expressed outrage at her presence, given her history and that of her party of controversial views on race and immigration, with some calling it an affront to African dignity.

The failure of Operation Barkhane, Serval’s successor and France's largest overseas military operation in decades, further alienated public opinion in France. The mission, which cost billions of euros and the lives of 53 French soldiers, failed to achieve its excessively broad objective of ensuring the security of the western Sahel and was terminated in 2022.

“This all contributes to an interesting dynamic where neither the right nor the left, nor the general public has a strong impetus to maintain France's traditional influence in the Sahel,” Bertrand noted.

Besides, changes to France’s diplomatic institutions have exacerbated a “disconnect” between Macron’s lofty rhetoric on the international stage and the realities on the ground in West Africa and the Sahel, Bertrand added.

Centralising decision-making in the Elysee Palace has accelerated under Macron, who disbanded France’s historic diplomatic corps in 2022.

This reorganisation has had “profound consequences” for France’s global influence, Bertrand argued.

“Where French foreign policy was once crafted by experienced career diplomats with deep regional expertise and long-term perspectives, it is now largely shaped by Elysee advisors.

"Their worldview is more aligned with neoliberal economics than diplomatic tradition, and their decisions are often driven by domestic political considerations rather than strategic international thinking,” Bertrand said.

A multipolar shift

As France’s presence in the Sahel diminishes, Macron has attempted to recalibrate Paris’s approach to the region, including by attempting to address his country’s colonial past. These efforts have been muted by domestic backlash from the far right, even as painful memories remain deeply rooted in the collective consciousness of its former colonies.

'Chad's Mahamat Deby saw the writing on the wall and likely calculated there was more to gain politically by taking control of the narrative and ending the agreement on Chad’s terms'

- Will Brown, European Council on Foreign Relations

Senegal’s President Faye referenced Macron’s recent acknowledgement of France’s responsibility for the 1944 massacre of hundreds of Senegalese soldiers - an atrocity long denied - as he called for the closure of French military bases and emphasised the importance of sovereignty.

Chad’s decision to end military cooperation with France reportedly blind sided French officials, despite plans already being in motion in Paris to scale back its regional military footprint.

Last month, a report submitted by a French envoy to Macron recommended reducing troop numbers in Chad, Gabon and Ivory Coast from 2,200 to 600. Under these plans, Chad was to retain the largest contingent, with troop numbers dropping from 1,000 to 300.

“The Chadian President Mahamat Deby saw the writing on the wall and likely calculated that there was more to gain politically by taking control of the narrative and ending the agreement on Chad’s terms,” Will Brown, a senior policy fellow for Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Middle East Eye.

“It’s better to earn domestic political points by kicking out the French than relying on a reduced force that cannot significantly bolster security,” Brown added, noting that the planned troop levels were insufficient to address Chad’s security challenges effectively.

The Sahel’s pivot reflects a broader shift towards a multipolar world order, with countries like Russia, China and Turkey expanding their influence.

Unlike France, these rival powers are unburdened by decades of history working with what Brown termed “parasitic elites”. New actors offer economic and military incentives that France is either unwilling or unable to match.

Between Chinese infrastructure investments, Russian private military contractors and Turkish affordable drones, West African and Sahel countries now have alternatives to meet their needs.

Tewfik Hamel, an associate researcher at the Initiative for Peace and Security in Africa, believes that increasing resistance to its presence will push France to redefine its military strategy in Africa.

“France is likely to significantly reduce the number of permanent military personnel on the continent, relying more on private security companies linked to the state,” Hamel explained.

One such company, Defence Conseil International (DCI), exports French military expertise, training and technical assistance.

“In 2018, DCI operated in just three African countries, representing only 0.1 percent of its global activity. By 2023, its partnerships had expanded to 14 countries,” Hamel noted.