Iranians fear fragmentation as rumours swirl about US backing Kurdish groups

For many Iranians, the war launched by Israel and the US has triggered fears that go beyond air strikes and missile attacks.

Some now worry that the conflict will open the door to internal instability and even attempts to fragment the country along ethnic lines. 

Keyvan, 42, was born and raised in Tehran. Like many others, he has been following the news of the war closely. Keyvan isn’t worried only about the bombing campaign, though: he fears that armed Kurdish groups based in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq could try to enter Iran if the war escalates. 

“They have been planning to break up Iran for years. Not just Israel, even the United States. Just listen to what Trump has said,” Keyvan tells Middle East Eye.

He is referring to remarks made by US President Donald Trump suggesting that Iran’s borders might not remain the same after the war. The comment has circulated widely on Persian-language social media and has added to concerns about the country’s territorial integrity.

In recent weeks, reports have circulated about possible preparations by armed Iranian Kurdish groups based across the border in Iraq. In the fog of war, some unverified accounts have even claimed that small-scale incursions may already have begun. 

Prominent Kurdish figures, including Bafel Talabani, leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), have said that they do not foresee cross-border operations taking place and do not believe regime change will take place in Tehran.

“Iranians, like everybody else, are very nationalistic persons, and I believe that if they fear that Kurds coming in from elsewhere will cause a split or a splintering of their country, this may actually unify the people against this separatist movement,” Talabani said. 

But this view is not shared by all Kurdish leaders.

“We have been planning for a long time, and now that conditions are more favourable, there is a strong probability of action,” Babasheikh Hosseini, secretary-general of the Khabat Organisation of Iranian Kurdistan, told Al Jazeera last Friday. 

Kurdish armed groups

According to research cited by Minority Rights Group International, Kurds make up around 10 percent of Iran’s population, living mainly in the provinces of Kurdistan, Kermanshah, West Azerbaijan and Ilam. 

Several Iranian Kurdish opposition movements, which Tehran generally considers to be terrorist groups, have operated for decades from bases in northern Iraq. 

'When the issue is Iran, there is no difference between Shia and Sunni, Kurdish or Persian'

- Bahram, Kurdish Iranian

A week before the war on Iran began, the Kurdish Freedom Party (PAK), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), Komala and the Khabat organisation formed a coalition of Iranian Kurdish opposition parties whose stated aim was the “overthrow of the Islamic Republic of Iran”. 

Over the years, tensions between Tehran and Kurdish armed groups have periodically escalated. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has repeatedly launched missile and drone strikes against militant camps across the border in Iraq.

In 2023, Iran and Iraq signed a security agreement aimed at disarming Iranian Kurdish armed groups and relocating them away from the Iranian border. 

Iraqi officials later said several camps had been moved deeper into Iraqi Kurdistan. Still, residents in Iran’s Kurdish regions say weapons smuggling across the mountainous border appears to have increased since the 12-day war launched by Israel last year.

Inside Kurdish Iran

Bahram, a 65-year-old resident of Sanandaj, the capital of Iran’s Kurdistan province, says local people are well aware of developments across the border.

Sanandaj lies in a region where most residents are Sunni Muslims – a minority in Iran, where the majority of the population is Shia. Sunni communities in Iran, including Kurds and Arabs, have long complained about discrimination and political marginalisation.

But Bahram says that when it comes to Iran’s territorial integrity, ethnic and religious differences fade. “When the issue is Iran, there is no difference between Shia and Sunni, Kurdish or Persian,” he says.

'We have seen what happened in Syria and Libya. We do not want our beloved Iran to be torn apart'

- Zohreh, Iranian mother

“If you travel through towns in Kurdistan province and talk to ordinary people, you will hear the same thing,” he tells MEE. “Since the 12-day war, more weapons have been coming across the border.”

Bahram believes the movement of weapons is part of a broader strategy. “In my view, Israel is behind much of this, trying to create unrest inside Iran at the right moment,” he says.

Iranian officials have not released detailed information about such reports, but they have repeatedly warned that any cross-border activity by Kurdish armed groups will be met with force.

Since the start of the current war, Iranian forces have carried out several strikes inside Iraqi Kurdistan, which Tehran says targeted bases belonging to “separatist terrorist groups”.

Despite long-standing grievances in Kurdish areas of Iran, Bahram believes armed Kurdish groups have limited support among local people.

“Even in small towns, these militant groups are not popular,” he says. “Despite attempts to arm certain groups inside Iranian Kurdistan, I don’t think fighters from across the border would be able to advance far if they tried to enter Iran.”

Fear replaces hope

Meanwhile, some Iranians who once supported the idea of foreign military pressure on the Islamic Republic say they are now reconsidering their views.

Zohreh, a 43-year-old mother, says the possibility of Kurdish militias entering Iran has made her deeply anxious. 

“What would happen if Kurdish fighters came into the country?” she asks. “Would we move toward partition? Toward civil war?

"We have seen what happened in Syria and Libya. We do not want our beloved Iran to be torn apart.”

She says she once supported the idea of outside pressure on the Iranian government. “We were exhausted by the crimes of the Islamic Republic. We were tired of unemployment, rising prices and political repression. We thought maybe war would end everything," she says.

But the war has changed her mind. “Now when I listen to the speeches of Israel’s prime minister and the American president, I realise they are criminals too, just like the Islamic Republic.”

Her voice trembles as she continues: “We, the people of Iran, are trapped between powerful forces that do not care about us.”

The borders of Iran

Although some activists and intellectuals in Iran support ideas such as federalism and greater recognition of minority rights, strong nationalist sentiment remains widespread across the country.

Armin, a 36-year-old resident of Tehran, says Iran’s territorial unity is a red line for many citizens.

“For Iranians, touching the map of the country is unacceptable,” he says. “Iran is not just land. It is our identity. Anyone who tries to divide it will face the anger of the Iranian people.”

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Analysts from organisations such as the International Crisis Group have warned that external conflict could intensify ethnic tensions inside Iran if instability spreads across its borders.

Trump, among other US officials, has denied reports suggesting Washington might support Kurdish militant incursions into Iran.
But for many Iranians, official statements from Washington offer little reassurance.

“I don’t trust anything Trump says,” Keyvan says. “He says something different every day. Experience has taught me to prepare for the worst.”

Zohreh recalls another moment that shaped her scepticism. “Wasn’t he the same person who tweeted during the protests two months ago that American help was on the way,” she says. “And then a few days later he was negotiating with the Islamic Republic.

“We don’t trust these promises any more. What we fear most now is that our country could slide into civil war. Only God can help us, if there is a God at all.”