Iranian drones cost a fraction of air defences. How long can Gulf states last?
In retaliation against the US and Israel's war, Iran is striking targets far and wide.
Tehran has attacked Israel and US bases in the region, as was widely expected and threatened.
But it has also struck every single country in the Gulf - including key oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Some of those strikes, particularly on the US and Israel, are punitive in nature, to prove that it will not take the killing of its supreme leader and dozens of officials, as well as hundreds of civilians, lightly.
But the attacks on oil and gas facilities, and the Strait of Hormuz, indicate that Iran is also targeting the economic interests of countries in the region perceived to be allied with the US.
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Not only is Tehran doing this directly, but indirectly too: through a strategy of financial attrition aimed at depleting the defences of those it is attacking.
As of Sunday, Iran had fired 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles and 541 drones at the UAE.
The Emirati defence ministry said it intercepted 152 missiles, both cruise missiles and 506 of the drones. That is an interception rate above 92 percent.
Meanwhile, the Qataris said a day after the war began that it had been attacked with 65 missiles and 12 drones, of which 63 and 11 were intercepted, respectively. That amounts to a 96 percent interception rate.
'Ferrari to intercept e-bikes'
Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank and an expert on air power, said the UAE’s 92 percent rate was “extraordinary”.
“Yet the financial toll of sustaining that defense is enormous, raising the prospect that tactical ‘victory’ masks a costly strategic drain,” she wrote on X.
Grieco estimated the cost for Iran, noting that ballistic missiles cost around $1-2m, while Iranian Shahed "kamikaze" drones are between $20,000-50,000. Thus, Tehran’s total outlay in attacking the UAE by Sunday was between $177m and $360m.
'For every $1 Iran spent on drones, the UAE spent roughly $20-28 shooting them down'
- Kelly Grieco, analyst
For the UAE to intercept these munitions is significantly more expensive.
Grieco estimated that it would cost the Emirates between $1.45bn and $2.28bn to intercept the attacks over the weekend: between five and 10 times the amount Iran spent.
The drones are where it gets particularly punishing, given how relatively cheap they are to produce.
“For every $1 Iran spent on drones, the UAE spent roughly $20-28 shooting them down,” said Grieco. “This is the core of Iran's strategy.”
Gregg Carlstrom at the Economist likened the economic asymmetry to “using Ferraris to intercept e-bikes”.
Russian use of financial attrition
The use of inexpensive drones to deplete air defences is not new: Russia has been using such financial attrition in Ukraine for some time.
Russia uses Shahed drones, originally made in Iran but now mass-produced in Russia using Chinese components, to saturate Ukraine’s air defence systems.
Not only are these drones cheap, but they are relatively easy and quick to produce on a mass scale.
The systems needed to intercept them are costlier, and often have complex supply chains with long lead times.
Western countries have been delivering air defence systems to Kyiv since the war began, but Ukrainian politicians have called for more.
David Jordan, a senior lecturer at King's College London and air defence expert, said that in the drone warfare in Ukraine, there was a roughly six-week cycle of innovations to baffle defenders, and the other side finding a solution.
"This means that the air defences are sometimes absolutely on top of the incoming drones (and frequently the accompanying missiles) and on other occasions more get through," Jordan told Middle East Eye.
Those innovations on the Ukrainian side, he said, include fitting Miniguns to An-28 transport aircraft and using these to shoot drones down, as well as the use of electronic warfare to jam drone communications.
"At first, the Ukrainians were relying on high-end systems like the Patriot to intercept the Shahed," Grieco told MEE. "This was simply not sustainable, given both cost and limited numbers of interceptors."
She explained that Kyiv turned to more cost effective alternatives such as the Gepard, a Cold War era anti-aircraft gun mounted on a truck.
US 'racing to replenish interceptors'
It remains to be seen how long Israel, the US and Gulf states can continue maintaining high interception rates.
Israel often allows impacts in open areas as a strategy to manage costs and stockpile reserves.
The US is racing to destroy Iran’s missile and drone assets before it runs out of interceptors, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing current and former officials and analysts.
The volume of interceptors is classified, but recent conflicts with Iran and its allies have depleted air defences in the Middle East.
The report states that the US is racing to replenish stocks of Patriot and Standard Missile interceptors, as well as interceptors for Thaad.
'There is some manufacturing capability in the Gulf, but not enough to meet current demand'
- David Jordan, academic
It also stated that the US is rapidly expending Tomahawk cruise missiles and aircraft-launched weapons.
"Interceptor stockpiles are limited, and the US simply cannot make interceptors fast enough to replace them," said Grieco.
"The US, Israel, and Gulf countries are largely relying on US-made systems, which means they are all drawing from the same production lines."
MEE reported on Monday that the US was “stonewalling” requests by some Gulf states to replenish their air defence interceptors, according to one western official and one former US official familiar with the matter.
Washington will be seeking to learn lessons from its campaign against Yemen’s Houthis, where it reportedly burned through $1bn of munitions in one month without gaining air superiority.
"The sort of high-intensity war that's being seen in Ukraine points out just how deep your weapons/ammunition stockpiles need to be," said Jordan.
"Both at the start of a war and in terms of how quickly you can produce cast quantities of weapons, ammunition and associated equipment."
While the support of Israel in attacking Iran is easing the strain on the US, it too has concerns about supplies.
Israel is running low on Arrow 3 air defence interceptors and air-launched ballistic missiles, a US official told the Wall Street Journal.
Jordan said that whether the high interception rates thus far can continue depends on the supplies of both sides.
Iran could run out of drones and missiles if Israel and the US target the Tehran's launchers and storage sites, and if outside help doesn't arrive.
"If they are able to maintain a steady and meaningful number of attacks, then the onus shifts to the nation(s) on the defensive," said Jordan.
At that point, he adds, the US would need to assess how quickly it could refill the stocks of its regional allies.
"There is some manufacturing capability in the Gulf nations, but not enough to meet current demand," he said.
Israel said on Sunday that it had destroyed half of Iran's ballistic missile launchers.
"If that’s true, it starts to tilt the maths more in the favour of the defenders - at least, in terms of the ballistic missile threat," said Grieco.
"The Shahed drones, however, are likely to remain a problem, particularly if the stockpiles are dispersed - and there is no reason to think the Iranians have not done so."
What air defences do Gulf countries have?
Within the Gulf region, Saudi Arabia has the largest network of air defences.
That includes US-made Thaad systems and long-range Patriot PAC-3 batteries.
It also has a number of short- and medium-range defence systems, including US-made I-Hawk missiles and French Crotale, Shahine and MICA systems.
It also has US and French-made point-defence launchers, and anti-aircraft guns.
To date, Saudi Arabia is the only country in the Gulf to deploy Chinese-manufactured Silent Hunter laser systems, which destroy small aerial threats including low-flying drones.
The UAE uses the US-made Thaad and long-range Patriot systems, as well as a version of the Israeli-made Barak air defence system.
The Emirates also relies on the South Korean-manufactured Cheongung II to deal with medium-range threats. For shorter-range threats, it has a number of weapons, including French, Russian, Swedish and British systems supported by anti-aircraft guns.
Only Riyadh and Abu Dhabi within the Gulf Cooperation Council group of states operate the Thaad system, which utilises advanced interception capabilities against ballistic missiles.
Qatar signed a deal last year with the US that would see it procure the Thaad system, though it’s not clear whether it has been fielded yet.
For medium- and long-range threats, Doha relies on US-made Patriot systems and NASAMS III.
It owns Russian Igla, US Stinger, Chinese FN-6 and French Mistral systems for shorter-range defences.
Meanwhile, Kuwait uses US-made Patriot PAC-3 batteries, and a number of short-range and point-defence options procured from western allies.
Bahrain also fields the Patriot PAC-3 system, which has long-range surface-to-air missile capabilities.
Oman is the GCC country with the least advanced options for medium- and long-range defences, though it owns a number of short-range systems.
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