Iran’s attacks on Gulf won’t force US to stop the war, Turkey says

Iran’s effort to raise costs for Gulf countries in hopes of pushing the United States to end the war is unlikely to succeed, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told journalists on Tuesday.

Turkey had tried for weeks to broker a deal between the US and Iran, but US and Israeli attacks over the weekend, following several rounds of talks in Oman, scuppered Ankara's attempts to avoid war.

Fidan acknowledged that Turkey's efforts to prevent the war had failed, despite the Turkish government putting forward “creative solutions” to the disagreement over Iran’s nuclear and ballistic programmes.

“In fact, we succeeded in delaying the outbreak of the war,” he said.

Fidan said he believes Israel and the US will seek to ensure that Iran no longer remains a country capable of posing a threat in the region.

Since the weekend, Iranian military officials, operating under a decentralised response plan in the event of a decapitation strike targeting senior leadership, have carried out attacks on several Gulf countries, damaging luxury hotels in Dubai, striking energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and prompting Qatar to temporarily halt its LNG exports.

Iranian experts close to Tehran say the aim was to “regionalise” the conflict and demonstrate to the US and the international community that the repercussions would extend beyond Iran and affect the broader region.

“At present, Iran is attempting to impose costs. It is doing so by targeting energy facilities in the Gulf, thereby generating pressure,” Fidan said.

“Iran seems to expect that by striking these locations, the affected parties will exert pressure on the United States to halt the war, but this outcome does not appear probable. As for how much capacity Iran still retains, it is difficult to determine.”

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Fidan said there were claims that Gulf countries had responded to the Iranian attacks, adding that those claims could well be true.

Since the weekend, US and Israeli forces have focused on targeting ballistic missile launchers. However, experts note that the US, Israel and Gulf countries have interceptor stockpiles that may last only a few weeks at best.

Fidan added that Turkey has been trying to find a way forward through talks with the relevant parties, but negotiations would be multilayered, as it remains unclear when the attacks might stop in a way that would satisfy the US and Israel.

“The minimum condition for stopping the war would be to reduce the opposing side to a level of military incapacity sufficient to satisfy the attacker,” he said.

“The maximum objective, however, would be regime change.”

Fidan said that even meeting the minimum condition - the destruction or neutralisation of Iran’s core military capabilities - would require time and a series of military operations, as Iran is a vast country with missile assets dispersed across many locations.

For now, Fidan said, Ankara does not see a level of unrest within Iranian society that would be sufficient to bring about regime change.

One of Turkey’s main concerns regarding Iran is the potential arrival of refugees from the country.

Fidan said Ankara does not currently see any refugee wave heading toward Turkey and noted that Iran is presently blocking the departure of its citizens through its borders.