Israel threatens UK and France with West Bank annexation if they recognise Palestine
Relations between Israel and its historic European allies, Britain and France, have rapidly deteriorated in recent weeks.
It was just last Monday that the two countries issued a statement with Canada condemning Israel's expanded military operations in Gaza and warning they could take "concrete actions".
A day later, Britain announced it was summoning the Israeli ambassador in London and suspending its free trade agreement talks with Israel.
Israel lashed out in response, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accusing the three Israeli allies of encouraging Hamas.
Britain and France insist they remain firm allies of Israel.
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But a further, unprecedented deterioration in relations could be on the cards in the coming weeks.
The two countries are, according to rumours, gearing up to recognise a Palestinian state at a UN conference on the two-state solution in June.
Such an act would cause a political earthquake.
Earlier this year, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy insisted that the UK would only recognise a Palestinian state "when we know it’s going to happen and it’s in sight".
But in late April, Lammy acknowledged for the first time that the UK is in discussion with France and Saudi Arabia on the topic.
French officials believe Britain is onboard with the plan to recognise Palestinian statehood, according to French media reports late last week.
Alon Liel, who was formerly director general of Israel's foreign ministry and adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, told MEE earlier this year that he believes British and French support would be vital in helping to secure Palestinian statehood.
"We can pull our ambassadors from Spain, or from Oslo or from Dublin," he said.
"But we cannot pull our ambassador from London. We cannot close our embassy in London.
"If our historic friends like Britain and France recognise Palestine, we cannot explain it away as antisemitism. It will have to change Israeli thinking."
But recent events have indicated that Israel would take dramatic action in response to two of its most important allies recognising a Palestinian state.
In the past few days, Israel's strategic affairs minister threatened Britain and France that Israel may annex parts of the West Bank if they recognise a Palestinian state, according to Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
Ron Dermer, appointed in February to head Israel's Gaza ceasefire negotiation team, reportedly made the threat in a conversation with France's foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot.
On Sunday, the Israeli daily Israel Hayom reported that Gideon Saar, the Israeli foreign minister, warned his British and French counterparts that Israel could take unilateral action if Britain and France made the move.
Haaretz, quoting an unnamed diplomat, reported on Monday that Dermer threatened Israel could legalise unauthorised settler outposts in the West Bank and annex parts of Area C.
Pressure ramping up
MEE revealed earlier this month that Britain privately decided in 2014 that it would consider recognising a Palestinian state if Israel advanced with the contentious E1 settlement project.
Israel is currently poised to move forward with the settlement plan, which would effectively split the occupied West Bank in two. On 13 May, the UK Foreign Office declined to comment and referred MEE to the Labour government's official position on the issue.
The British government is unlikely to recognise Palestine without a nod of approval from the United States.
But domestic pressure is ramping up, including from within the governing Labour Party.
Several MPs told MEE this month they believe the UK must recognise a Palestinian state immediately.
Labour MP Uma Kumaran, a member of Britain's Foreign Affairs Select Committee, said: "This government was elected on a manifesto that promised to recognise Palestine as a step towards a just and lasting peace.
"I strongly support the recognition of a Palestinian state, and I have raised this repeatedly in parliament, on the Foreign Affairs Committee and with ministers."
At this stage, the UK continues to strike a broadly conciliatory tone with Israel.
Labour ministers refuse to say Israel has broken international law and insist the countries are allies.
And Lord Ian Austin, trade envoy to Israel, is on a trip to the country this week to "promote trade" - just days after the suspension of free trade agreement talks.
But the Israeli government is growing increasingly strident in its criticisms of allies who oppose its latest expanded onslaught on Gaza.
Britain and France are two of Israel's most long-standing and powerful allies. It looks increasingly possible that this might change.
"When mass murderers, rapists, baby killers, and kidnappers thank you, you’re on the wrong side of justice," Netanyahu said in a public message to the UK, France and Canada last week - accusing them of providing a gift to Hamas by opposing Israel's actions in Gaza.
This is strong language and would have been unimaginable a year ago.
The recent threats of West Bank annexation suggest Israel is taking the prospect that the UK and France could recognise Palestine seriously - and that it would not take the move lying down.
In the coming weeks, further clashes are likely.
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