Israeli soldier accused of using classified intelligence to bet on attacks in Mena
An Israeli soldier and one other individual were indicted for allegedly using Polymarket to place bets on Israeli attacks in the Middle East.
Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security service, said on Thursday that the suspects made the bets based on classified information they had obtained while in the military.
The indictment comes after Kan public television reported last month that one Polymarket user won over $152,000 betting that Israel would attack Iran in June.
The user bet tens of thousands of dollars on lines including: ”Israel will strike Iran on Friday"; "Israel will strike Iran by the end of June"; "Israel will strike in Iran by July" and that Israel will end its war by July.
“The defense establishment emphasizes that placing such bets, based on secret and classified information, poses a real security risk to IDF operations and to the security of the state,” an Israeli government statement said on Thursday.
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“The acts attributed to the defendants with utmost severity and will act decisively to thwart and bring to justice anyone involved in the unlawful use of classified information.”
Polymarket is a US cryptocurrency-based prediction market that allows users to bet on virtually anything.
Currently, the betting site allows users to “lay odds on” when the next Israel strikes on Gaza or Lebanon will be, the number of countries Israel will attack in February, and progress in Gaza peace talks. There are also options to bet on whether Israel and the US will attack Iran.
Polymarket has come under scrutiny for a big bet placed on the US attack on Venezuela and the abduction of President Nicolas Maduro. One gambler netted more then $400,000 betting on the operation hours before it occurred.
The market is currently placing odds of a US attack on Iran by the end of June 2026 at 53 percent.
The chances of a US attack on the Islamic Republic before 28 February are currently placed at 16 percent. More then $12m has been placed on the bet.
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