Netanyahu heads to Washington to lobby amid 'very good' US talks with Iran
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is heading to Washington this week for his seventh meeting with US President Donald Trump over the last 12 months.
Netanyahu was originally scheduled to be in the US capital on 19 February, which is when Trump is set to host the inaugural meeting of the "Board of Peace" that he created on the heels of the Gaza ceasefire deal.
Netanyahu may have expedited his trip to try and lobby for his long-held goal of US strikes on Iran, leading to regime change, after the resumption of direct US-Iran talks in Oman last week and Trump's assessment that the meetings were "very good".
"Iran has always been his number one concern over the Palestinian issue and all the other issues," Guy Ziv, an Israeli politics expert and associate professor at American University in Washington, DC, told Middle East Eye.
"[Netanyahu] was famously boastful about having played a role in convincing President Trump to to back away from the JCPOA during Trump's first term, and and he's concerned that Trump might have some inclination to support a new deal with the Iranians," Ziv said of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, otherwise known as the Iran nuclear deal inked by the Obama administration.
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Trump unilaterally exited the deal in 2018.
"He wants to convince him, at the very least, to incorporate the Iranian ballistic missiles into this agreement, which had not been included in the JCPOA, but which Netanyahu sees as a major threat to Israel and a red line."
At Friday's talks were Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US special envoy for peace missions Steve Witkoff, accompanied by Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who does not have an official role within the administration.
In an unusual move, Trump also sent the top commander of US forces in the Middle East to the talks - likely as a reminder that the US still could attack Iran if it wants to.
'Iran has always been his (Netanyahu's) number one concern over the Palestinian issue and all the other issues'
- Guy Ziv, American University
“The problem has always been that Trump, as well as previous presidents, have tried to find a way to reconcile between what the Israelis want and what the US wants,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told MEE.
"The poison pill [the Israelis] put in place this past summer by demanding zero enrichment ensured that there was no deal" between the US and Iran, he added.
A 12-day war in June that began with Israeli strikes against Iran killed more than 1100 Iranians, and ended with the unprecedented US bombing of three of Iran's nuclear sites.
"Now they have another poison pill, which is that they demand that Iran's missiles also be limited, restricted, knowing very well the Iranians will never accept this, since this is the only deterrence they have left against Israel," Parsi said.
Netanyahu has left an indelible mark after nearly every visit with Trump.
Their last meeting at Trump's Florida residence on 29 December saw the president begin referring to limits on Iran's missile programme, when he had previously made nuclear capability and threats via regional proxies the focus, Parsi noted.
Optics
There are optics to consider for Netanyahu's domestic audience when he's seen standing alongside the US president, and reaffirming the strength of the military and intelligence-sharing relationship.
"This is an election year in Israel, and even though the date is set in October - that's the official date - there's a good chance that these elections are going to take place sooner, and his political future is very much in doubt," Ziv said.
"But Trump remains highly popular in Israel, so even the mere appearance with Trump can't exactly hurt him."
Netanyahu preempting an appearance alongside other Board of Peace members at the meeting later this month may have also been a factor.
"Netanyahu really wants to avoid appearing alongside Israel's adversaries: Turkey's Erdogan, Qatar's al-Thani, the PA's Abbas... for his own political reasons," Ziv noted.
There is also the matter of what exactly the Board of Peace has done for Gaza, given that another four Palestinians were killed in an Israeli air strike on a residential building on Monday.
A total of 581 identified Palestinians have been killed since Trump announced the Gaza ceasefire on 10 October.
And all in all, since the Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, and Israel's ensuing genocide in Gaza, the Gaza health ministry has counted 72,032 Palestinians killed as of Monday morning, local time. Thousands more are missing and presumed dead.
"For Donald Trump, he's mainly interested in the headline. So he got his headline - the Board of Peace, the Palestinian technocratic committee," Khaled Elgindy, a former adviser to Palestinian leadership during negotiations with Israel from 2004 to 2009, told MEE.
"As far as [Trump is] concerned, phase two [of the ceasefire deal] is moving along wonderfully. Of course, the reality on the ground is entirely different. We're not even really through phase one," he added.
Palestinians are a 'non-factor'
Netanyahu will likely depart Washington with some form of a deliverable from the Trump administration - and if not on Iran, which tops his agenda, then likely on the occupied West Bank or Gaza.
On Sunday, Israel’s security cabinet took steps to make it easier for settlers to seize Palestinian land in the occupied West Bank. The Israeli settlements dotted across the area are already illegal under international law, yet Trump promised Muslim and Arab leaders back in September that he would ensure Israel does not annex the West Bank.
"It may very well be that Trump's calculation will be that he will stand firm on American demands vis-a-vis Iran, and instead give something to Netanyahu on Gaza. That, too, will ultimately fail, because Netanyahu will not be content with that," Parsi said.
With Trump's base divided on his adventurous foreign policy decisions from Iran to Venezuela, there is a likelihood he will defer to Netanyahu on an issue that his supporters care less about.
"The West Bank and Gaza, unlike Iran, are things that the Trump administration don't really care about. Palestinians don't have any strategic value," Elgindy said.
"Palestinians are a non-factor in the Trump administration's thinking. So it's entirely possible that they could trade those away in return for getting Netanyahu to acquiesce," he added.
Elgindy added that a major factor in Trump's calculus is keeping his political base satisfied, but his base is split within the Evangelical Christians and pro-Israel mega-donor Miriam Adelson on one side, and the other that is more "suspicious" of Netanyahu's intentions.
More often than not, Trump has deferred to his donors.
"It's just so unpredictable because he doesn't have, you know, he's not operating on the basis of an ideological framework or a set of established norms or standards. He is operating on his gut," Elgindy said.
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