Saudi Arabia tells Gulf allies to avoid any steps that could inflame tensions with Iran, sources say
Senior Saudi officials have expressed anger at the scale and timing of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, with the kingdom telling its Gulf allies to avoid taking any steps that could trigger a response by Tehran or its proxies and push the region towards a broader conflict.
Two Gulf Arab sources told Middle East Eye that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman conveyed the message to the leaders of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates on Saturday, shortly after the country's foreign ministry formally condemned Iran's retaliatory strikes across the Arabian peninsula.
The sources said that the conversations were brief but there was an emerging consensus that Iran's retaliatory strikes were lesser in intensity than expected and that the Gulf states should avoid taking any direct action that could elicit an angry response from Tehran.
The sources said that the sentiment was later echoed when the Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah, held calls with his regional counterparts.
Those calls were focused on calling for deescalation and uniting the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries' foreign policy positions to avoid any one actor veering off script.
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The sources said the call between bin Salman and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed, who have been at odds for months over the wars in Yemen and Sudan and other tensions, was a sign of how Iran's response to the US-Israeli attacks had jolted the region.
The sources said that whilst Riyadh was notified ahead of the US-Israeli strikes, the kingdom, which has been facing criticism in Washington over its diplomatic spat with the UAE, chose not to go against the dominant thinking in the White House.
Since Trump returned to the Oval Office last year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has intensified his long-running public campaign for US strikes against what he views as an existential threat to his country.
'A direct clash between the GCC and Iran, if it occurs, will deplete the resources of both sides and provide an opportunity for many forces to control us'
-Qatar's former Prime Minister, Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani
His campaign grew in intensity following the 12-day-war last year when Israel bombed military and nuclear facilities in Iran in a surprise attack, and assassinated prominent military leaders, nuclear scientists and politicians.
In launching Saturday's attack on Iran, one of the sources said that the White House effectively rejected the pleas of its allies in the region who cautioned against the strikes, even as a deal looked imminent.
Oman's Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, who had been a key player in talks aimed at preventing a war with Iran, immediately expressed his "dismay" at the strikes, suggesting that Washington was duped into war by the Israelis.
"Neither the interests of the United States nor the cause of global peace are well served by this. And I pray for the innocents who will suffer. I urge the United States not to get sucked in further. This is not your war," he said.
On Friday, hours before war broke out, al-Busaidi had played up progress in the talks.
"Now we are talking about zero stockpiling and that is very, very important because if you cannot stockpile material that is enriched, then there is no way you can actually create a bomb," he told CBS's Face the Nation.
'Deeply upset'
One of the Gulf sources, who was aware of bin Salman's phone calls on Saturday, told MEE that the kingdom was "deeply upset" at how the attack was handled.
Carefully couching their criticism, the source said that the Saudis believed that any military involvement by one of the Gulf states against Iran could drag Yemen's Houthis into the conflict.
"Our biggest fear now is that any escalation will be used as a pretext by Tehran to unleash its network of proxies," the source said, referring to the Houthis which Iranian officials have previously supported.
A Houthi representative, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the group's leadership had not issued an official announcement, said the "world would have to wait and see what came next."
When pressed further on when and how the group would respond, MEE's messages went unanswered.
The rebels ceased their attacks on the Red Sea shipping route as part of a deal with the Trump administration that also halted US strikes against the Houthis.
They also stopped their attacks against Israel after an October ceasefire that halted major fighting in Gaza.
Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi defence analyst based in Riyadh, said that it was crucial the kingdom maintain its current posture - which many perceive as being non aligned with the US-Israeli decision to attack Iran - in its bid to dissuade the Houthis from entering the war.
"The Houthis have their own agenda," Alghannam told MEE. "Crucially, if they sense that Riyadh is quietly distancing itself from the anti-Iran front, they may actually hold back," he said.
Abdulaziz Alghashian, a Saudi researcher and senior nonresident fellow at the Gulf International Forum, told MEE that the Saudis were "infuriated" with the decision to attack Iran "and did everything they could to avoid the situation."
He said the kingdom would likely avoid engaging in public diplomacy amid the barrage of Iranian strikes across the Gulf, but said they could seek to "dampen" the issue.
In January, MEE revealed that the Trump administration lobbied Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman about the importance of supporting the US during a future attack, with talking points about how military strikes could reduce Iran's threat to partners in the region and its ballistic missile arsenal.
It's unclear whether Trump was seeking a public commitment from the Gulf or acquiescence behind closed doors, which a US official told MEE it received.
In the first 12 hours of the attacks, Trump spoke with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, as well as Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Similar calls took place with regional leaders on Sunday.
MEE reached out to the White House for additional details about the calls but did not receive a response by time of publication.
'Reject dictates or blackmail'
Amid Iran's decision to strike targets ranging from the world-famous Fairmont hotel in Dubai to Jebel Ali port, other analysts warned that the Gulf could be pushed into closer alignment with the US the longer the war dragged on.
"Iran is forcing the GCC up the escalation ladder," said Firas Maksad, who oversees Eurasia Group's coverage of Middle East and North Africa geopolitics.
"They will have to consider responding or, at a minimum, allowing the US greater operational freedom to conduct offensive operations from their territories."
The UAE's Minister of State for International Cooperation, Reem Al Hashimy, also appeared to suggest that the oil-rich Emirate could open its airspace and bases to support US attacks if the retaliatory strikes continued.
"We have been very clear about not having our territory be used to attack Iran," Al Hashimy told CNN's Becky Anderson on Sunday.
"We have always encouraged dialogue, and we have wanted to make sure that it doesn't amount to this, because our region doesn't need another war. By the same token, if it needs to come to that, it will come to that. And really, the ball is in Iran's court right now about how they want to deal with a neighborhood and a neighbour that has traditionally been a very fair and good neighbour to them."
According to Alghannam, Riyadh would likely pursue a more "neutral" response to the retaliatory attacks and explore "every back channel possible to bring about an end to the hostilities."
Qatar's former Prime Minister, Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, who continues to hold some sway in the region years after exiting office, urged the GCC to adopt such an approach and not to be "dragged into a direct confrontation with Iran."
"There are forces that want the council’s states to become directly embroiled with Iran, and they know that the current clash between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, will come to an end," he said late on Sunday.
"But a direct clash between the council's states and Iran, if it occurs, will deplete the resources of both sides and provide an opportunity for many forces to control us under the pretext of helping us escape the crisis and halt the depletion," he said.
"The council's states have no choice but to act as a single, unified hand in confronting any aggression against them, rejecting any attempt to impose dictates or blackmail them," he added.
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