Trump owns the Gaza ceasefire. But how will he impose it?

Donald Trump pushed a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip across the finish line, but the US President-elect’s troubleshooting is going to be tested like never before - now that he has to impose the deal on a country itching to resume fighting and a defiant Hamas.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is believed to have agreed to the ceasefire this week partly because he wants a fresh slate with Trump, who is widely popular in Israel, analysts say. 

For his part, Trump has signalled that he could accommodate Netanyahu in areas like Israeli settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank and arms sales. Trump nominated Mike Huckabee - a fervent supporter of West Bank annexation who famously declared "there is no such thing as a settlement" - as his ambassador to Israel.

Marco Rubio, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, suggested in a Senate hearing this week that Trump would roll back sanctions the Biden administration introduced last year against Israeli settlers and confront the International Criminal Court for its genocide case against Israel.

“I suspect that one of the factors that persuaded Netanyahu to accept the terms of the deal was that Trump wants Israel to take it. It’s possible he (Netanyahu) seeks some last-minute sweeteners from Trump, such as an okay to continue settlement expansion,” William Usher, a former senior Middle East analyst at the CIA, told Middle East Eye.

The first phase of the ceasefire is straightforward and fairly popular in Israel, so it won’t require much prodding from Trump. It calls for Hamas to release 33 Israeli hostages in return for Israel freeing around 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.

Trump will bask in the powerful optics of hostages being released amid his 20 January inauguration. The parallel to Ronald Reagan’s 1981 swearing-in, when Iran freed the embassy hostages, will not be lost on Americans.

But the honeymoon period will likely fade after six weeks when Hamas and Israel will negotiate the second phase of the ceasefire.

'Crater or succeed on Trump's watch'

Second phase talks are a much more sensitive and controversial topic in Israel, as they include the release of the remaining 65 hostages, including male Israeli soldiers, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and a permanent ceasefire.

MEE reported that Hamas and Arab mediators are seeking the release of Marwan Barghouti, a popular Palestinian leader, during the second phase, a move Israel fiercely resisted during the 2011 Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is already set to lose one member of his government for agreeing to the ceasefire, and more could bail if he follows through on the terms calling for a permanent end to the war.

Israeli media reported that to gain the support of far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Netanyahu vowed to continue fighting in Gaza.

If Trump is determined to keep the Gaza Strip quiet during his presidency as he hones in on his "America First" domestic policy, ending the war in Ukraine and combating China, he could be set for a run-in with Netanyahu.

Trump already revealed his lack of patience over delays to the ceasefire after Israel’s cabinet dragged out approval, claiming that Hamas backtracked on parts of the deal.

“We shook hands, and we signed certain documents, but it better be done," Trump said in a podcast on Thursday. Trump has put his stamp on the ceasefire, rushing ahead of Arab mediators and the Biden administration when he announced it on Wednesday as “EPIC”.

Israel's security cabinet approved the deal on Friday. 

The question Arab mediators and regional officials ask is: How will Trump preserve the ceasefire he has taken credit for? He has carrots and sticks at his disposal, but each of them runs up against domestic and foreign policy constraints.

“Trump will regret owning this deal. It will crater or succeed on his watch, and it can’t succeed in just the sweetener department,” Aron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic presidents, told MEE.

Trump 2.0

Trump’s expected return to the White House had already set high expectations in Israel.

One current US intelligence official told MEE that members of the security establishment close to Netanyahu are floating annexing the Jordan Valley in the occupied West Bank, citing “security concerns”, in a move timed to coincide with Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the valley. 

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The Jordan Valley abuts the Jordan River, which separates the occupied West Bank from Jordan. It is fertile and ripe for development.

Nearly 90 percent of the valley is deemed Area C, which means it is under total Israeli security control, unlike Area A, which the Palestinian Authority is tasked with policing and administering.

This is where it gets sticky for Trump. He can try to keep Israel in the ceasefire, but he picked off the low-hanging fruit during his last term in office.

The US recognised Israeli annexation of the occupied Golan Heights and moved the US embassy to Jerusalem.

“This is not Trump 1.0 when he took unilateral actions that, frankly, had no impact on other Middle East policies. They were isolated steps. Trump 2.0 is much more complicated because he will be pressed on annexation of the West Bank and pressured to support an Iranian nuclear strike,” Miller said.

But Trump has shared clips on social media of economist Jeffrey Sachs calling Netanyahu a “deep, dark son of a bitch” who has roped the US into “endless wars”.

Transition officials told MEE that Trump is preparing to ramp up sanctions enforcement on Iran, and his traditional nominees have talked tough on the Islamic Republic.

However, Trump’s closest advisors have signalled openness to a deal.

Elon Musk reportedly met Iran’s ambassador to the UN.

Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said they will try to solve tensions over Tehran’s nuclear programme “diplomatically”.

Trump's revenge? 

Trump has already chopped the Gaza ceasefire off his list.

If the price of keeping Netanyahu in the deal is annexation of the occupied West Bank, that could scuttle his next goal of advancing the so-called Abraham Accords agreement and obtaining a Nobel Peace Prize. 

“We will continue promoting PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH throughout the region, as we build upon the momentum of this ceasefire to further expand the Historic Abraham Accords,” Trump said on Wednesday, referring to the 2020 normalisation deals between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco.

The Biden administration tried, and failed, to build on the Abraham Accords by bringing Saudi Arabia on board. Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack on southern Israel made that harder. Riyadh says it needs concrete steps towards the creation of a Palestinian state as a pre-condition to normalisation.

If Israel annexes swaths of the occupied West Bank, it will make Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's pledge harder to fulfil. He will have to weigh whether his people will countenance normalisation with a country he publicly accused of "genocide". 

Trump’s “stick” to keep Netanyahu in the deal is the same one Biden refused to use during 15 months of war: withholding arms transfers.

Given Trump’s support among evangelical Christians and pro-Israel lobbying groups, analysts say that is unlikely.

Trump got into an open rift with Netanyahu over the latter’s recognition of Biden’s election victory, saying, “Fuck him (Netanyahu)” for congratulating his opponent. 

Now, Netanyahu has to survive as prime minister of Israel after agreeing to a ceasefire. Far-right Israeli minister Ben Gvir says he will resign when the deal is approved. Smotrich has said he will resign if the war does not resume after phase 1. If those threats are realised, Netanyahu will be left with a minority government or face new elections.

The final irony for Trump is that the deal he forced Netanyahu to accept now threatens his political survival.