UK assessed there was 'no serious risk' of Israel committing genocide in Gaza
The British government assessed last year that there was “no serious risk” of a genocide occurring in Gaza, weeks before it imposed a partial suspension of arms exports to Israel which did not include parts that could end up in Israeli F-35 fighter jets.
Before that decision was taken, a handling plan set out that newly elected Prime Minister Keir Starmer would call Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to let him know the suspensions were coming.
These details are laid bare in the government’s argument filed in the judicial review of the UK’s decision to continue exporting F35 parts to Israel.
The case opened at the High Court on Tuesday, 19 months after Palestinian rights group Al Haq and the UK-based Global Legal Action Network (Glan) first made their challenge.
In the intervening months, the then-newly elected Labour government announced a partial suspension of around 30 arms export licences in September.
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The government, however, continued to allow the export of F-35 parts to a global pool which could eventually end up in Israel jets, citing the risk to global peace and security if they stopped.
Al Haq and Glan have argued that by making this “F-35 carve out”, the government is breaching its domestic and international legal obligations, including the genocide convention.
But the government argues that it could not be held accountable for violating its duty to prevent genocide under the convention “unless and until there is actually a genocide”.
“No English court, and no international court or tribunal, has found that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza. Nor should this court make such a finding,” the government says in its skeleton argument.
Rejecting Al-Haq's assertion that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, the government's lawyers say there is "a tenable view that no genocide has occurred or is occurring".
According to a June 2024 assessment cited by the government, the Export Control Joint Unit - a cross-departmental body overseeing UK export controls and licensing for military and dual-use items – had concluded that Israel “does not intend to commit genocide”.
The unit also assessed that “a finding that Israel is not committed to comply with [international humanitarian law] does not necessarily indicate that it is harbouring genocidal intent,” according to the court document.
“There have been a range of positive statements and some negatives statements from specific actors; however, their remarks are not assessed to be representative of the Israeli government overall.”
It continues: “No evidence has been seen that Israel is deliberately targeting civilian women or children. There is also evidence of Israel making efforts to limit incidental harm to civilians.”
'No evidence has been seen that Israel is deliberately targeting civilian women or children. There is also evidence of Israel making efforts to limit incidental harm to civilians'
- UK Export Control Joint Unit assessment
The assessment, according to the court document, formed part of the analysis which was placed before Foreign Secretary David Lammy on 24 July, just over two weeks after he said he commissioned new legal advice into Israel’s compliance with international humanitarian law in Gaza on his first day in office.
The government notes how sensitive the decision was when the Labour government suspended around 30 licences on 2 September 2024.
It describes how Lammy and trade minister Jonathan Reynolds were presented with two options after Lammy had determined that Israel was not committed to complying with international humanitarian law in Gaza.
The first option was to suspend the sale of weapons which could be used in Gaza, while the second option was to suspend all extant arms licences for use by the Israeli armed forces.
These would have included a range of licences, such as components for trainer aircraft that could not be used in military operations, replacement parts for submarines, components for jet enginers, and security scanners for crossing points.
The second option would have constituted a "political signal", the government's argument said, since it would have gone beyond the strict requirements required by the UK's export licensing regime.
Countervailing considerations included "the need to manage the UK’s relationship with Israel and the need to mitigate the risk of a decision to suspend being 'instrumentalised by Israel’s enemies'", it said.
“The decision whether it would be appropriate to ‘send a political signal’ to a foreign state exercising its right to self defence was taken at a time when the political and military sensitivities in the region were even more than usually acute,” it noted.
“The sensitivities of the suspension decision are evident from the fact that the ‘handling plan’ for the announcement of the decision included a direct call between Prime Minister Starmer and Prime Minister Netanyahu ahead of the announcement.”
Earlier, campaign groups and their supporters including MPs Jeremy Corbyn, Zarah Sultana and Imran Hussain gathered outside the court to call on the government to stop all arms sales to Israel.
The judicial review continues on Wednesday.
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