What does the German election mean for refugees?
The victory of conservatives and the far-right in Germany's election last week has cast uncertainty over the future of immigrants and refugees in the country.
The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), which made historic gains putting it in second place, had centred their campaigns on migration and asylum policy.
CDU leader and chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz, who has led his party to adopt a tougher stance on border security and migrants, has vowed a dramatic tightening of Germany's immigration law in the wake of a series of deadly attacks carried out by suspects with a migrant background.
Merz has pledged not to form a government with the AfD, but he argued that the only way to stop the rising power of the far-right party is for the democratic centre to propose its own tough measures, including a return to hard borders.
Meanwhile, the left-wing Die Linke party, positioning itself as a counterbalance to an anti-migrant right, exceeded expectations by securing 64 seats - thanks to its appeal to young voters through a campaign focused on social justice and migration rights.
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Re-elected Die Linke parliament member Clara Bunger slammed Merz’ election rhetoric as exploitative and accused him of performative politics.
'The very same parties that criticised the far-right AfD’s racist and populist positions a few years ago are now adopting those same positions'
- Mouatasem Alrifai, Nuremberg City Council
"Sealing off borders, pushing people back, and expanding detention centres won’t make anyone in Germany safer. These measures will only deepen the suffering of those already in vulnerable situations," Bunger told Middle East Eye.
"What we truly need is the opposite: safe pathways, humane and fair treatment for those who arrive, and full access to work, healthcare, and social services. We need to empower those seeking refuge in Germany rather than to exclude them."
Others in Germany, like Mouatasem Alrifai, worry that the increasingly harsh anti-immigration stance that the parties have adopted during the election will only fuel its growth.
Alrifai, a human rights activist and co-founder of the Tamkeen Movement, is an elected member of Nuremberg City Council for integration and migration who first settled in Germany as a Syrian refugee.
He believes that German political parties have embraced "racist and populist rhetoric" in place of social policies.
"Many of these parties have betrayed their principles. The very same parties that criticised the far-right AfD’s racist and populist positions a few years ago are now adopting those same positions," he told MEE.
"This will not increase their popularity but will instead fuel the rise of the far right - people always prefer the original. These parties are leading Germany into the abyss."
A break from Schengen
In a non-binding measure in late January, the German parliament passed a five-point migration plan proposed by Merz, which includes declaring a national emergency under EU law and a return to hard borders, sealing them off to most asylum seekers.
The plan also includes tighter deportation rules, an entry ban on undocumented people seeking to migrate to Germany, and a demand for EU-wide reforms.
Hard borders would signal a shift away from Schengen rules, which currently maintain an open border policy. Closed borders are generally considered against the rules, except in cases of national emergencies or during events like the Covid-19 pandemic.
The five-point plan would see people seeking asylum locked up in former army barracks and "daily" deportations to dangerous and turbulent countries.
Merz has also pledged to lobby the EU to reform its asylum laws - the latest European elections saw an increase in far-right MEPs. Some member states have previously complained that the current migration rules are inefficient, a position that could fire the starting gun on sweeping reforms.
Alrifai fears the consequences of tough talk on immigration.
"People like me have started a new life here and cannot simply abandon it, despite the racism and repression they face for defending human rights," he said.
"For example, I studied and worked here, my family and many of my friends live here, so being deported would be a painful experience - perhaps as traumatic as being displaced from Syria."
He fears that if Syria were to be classified as a safe following the fall of former president Bashar al-Assad, his application to become naturalised will be denied.
"Frankly, I am not ready to go through that experience again. It’s beyond what I or any human being can endure. It is a crime," Alrifai said.
Kelly Petillo, the Middle East and North Africa programme manager at European Council on Foreign Relations, says if Merz’s plan is adopted, the dynamic in Europe would be changed.
"I think this five points plan, if adopted, will also affect the dynamic in Europe - more on the political front given where EU politics is right now following last year’s elections," Petillo told MEE.
"But in terms of implementation, the plan will probably not be implemented because it violates EU law and European countries have said they will not cooperate."
Challenges ahead
The new CDU-led government could indeed find itself facing legal barriers to implementing its proposed hard-line immigration policies.
Under EU law, refugees must be processed in their country of arrival, making it difficult to deport them on the scale Merz is suggesting. Already, Austria has said it will refuse to take Germany’s deported migrants.
'Being deported would be a painful experience - perhaps as traumatic as being displaced from Syria'
- Mouatasem Alrifai, Nuremberg City Council
The "national emergency" declaration will have to be justified to the satisfaction of the European Union, otherwise the proposed border controls will be deemed illegal.
In February, civil rescue NGO Sea-Watch announced it was lodging a complaint against Germany to the European Commission, using a previous ruling against Hungary by the European Court of Justice.
"These controls are a state-organised breach of the law. They are disproportionate and contrary to human rights," said Oliver Kulikowski, spokesperson for Sea-Watch. "They don't create more safety, but drive people into illegality and force them onto more dangerous routes."
It remains to be seen whether Merz’s five-point plan will be feasible to implement. A coalition government has yet to be formed, and any new government intent on cracking down on immigration as harshly as the CDU proposes could face significant obstacles.
In the meantime, a German government faces a population mired by a cost of living crisis, infrastructure in desperate need of investment, and the impossible task of reconciling this reality with Germany’s punitive fiscal rules.
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