What's next after Ocalan's order to disband PKK?
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) leader, Abdullah Ocalan, issued an order on Thursday for the group he founded to disband and disarm.
His announcement was largely welcomed by Turkish political leaders and the media.
Ocalan, who has been imprisoned on Imrali Island in the Marmara Sea since 1999, had previously called for ceasefires, most notably between 2012 and 2015, but he had never before explicitly asked for the PKK to dissolve itself.
Sources close to the negotiations between the Turkish government, Ocalan and the PKK say that the process leading up to this decision lasted more than a year.
The initiative was first revealed in October by Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key ally of Turkey’s ruling coalition.
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Despite Turkey's continued military operations against the PKK, Ankara allowed Ocalan to be photographed and permitted pro-Kurdish politicians to publicly read his statement, which was broadcast live on all major news channels.
Turkey, the European Union and the United States classify the PKK as a terrorist organisation due to its attacks on civilians. Thousands of people have been killed by the war between the PKK and Turkey since the 1980s.
Many analysts view Ocalan’s call as a direct result of Turkey’s military success in isolating the PKK in nothern Iraq's Qandil mountains, depriving it of territorial control and infiltration routes since 2016. Turkey has utilised advanced drone technology and electronic warfare capabilities to weaken the group.
The only area where PKK-affiliated groups have somewhat freely maintained a presence is Syria, where the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) controls significant territory after expelling Islamic State fighters.
Ocalan’s statement not only called for the PKK’s dissolution but also included a direct order to the group’s leadership to convene a congress as soon as possible to finalise the necessary steps to dismantle it.
Hande Firat, a columnist for Hurriyet newspaper with close ties to the Turkish government, wrote on Friday that the next steps are already agreed upon.
This includes the PKK’s umbrella organisation, the KCK (Group of Communities in Kurdistan), organising a congress within two to three months.
Meanwhile, Yildiray Ogur, a columnist for Karar newspaper and the first journalist to report on the negotiations, expects the congress to take place as early as March, rather than a longer timeframe.
"The state, in particular, demanded the dissolution decision - it was the state's request. And they are very pleased," Ogur told Middle East Eye. "Ocalan’s statement is very clear, leaving no room for escape."
Ocalan took full responsibility for the decision, saying the PKK had outlived its purpose.
While posing for cameras, Ocalan was joined by three other inmates - Omer Hayri Konar, Veysi Aktas, and Hamili Yildirim, all senior PKK commanders - suggesting that he was not alone in making this decision.
Firat argues that once the PKK or KCK formally decides to disarm and dissolve, including its armed wings in Syria, Iraq, and Iran, Ankara will shift its focus to democratic reforms, potentially easing legal pressure on Kurdish politicians.
Ogur suggests that Selahattin Demirtas, the imprisoned former leader of the pro-Kurdish HDP, could be released under existing European Court of Human Rights rulings as a first step.
Firat outlines the next steps: "Weapons return and registration will begin in cooperation with neighboring countries. Foreign fighters will be required to leave their host countries. Those choosing to enter politics will be integrated into their respective country’s political system. Senior KCK leaders will be relocated to third countries."
Many expect that PKK leaders may be relocated to Iraq's Suleymaniyah, a region controlled by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), a political party historically friendly to the armed group.
Ogur recalls that during the 2013-2015 Turkey-PKK peace process, lists of PKK members were created, allowing those not involved in armed conflict to return to Turkey without facing charges, while senior commanders were relocated to third countries.
Questions over Syria
One of the biggest uncertainties is how this decision will affect Syria.
SDF Commander Mazlum Abdi said on Thursday that while his group welcomed Ocalan’s decision, it does not apply to the Syrian Democratic Forces, revealing that he had received a personal letter from Ocalan.
However, Ogur argues that Abdi’s reaction is unsurprising since the SDF officially denies any links to the PKK.
"PKK is the name of the movement, and Abdi - like it or not - is part of that," he said.
Ocalan’s statement also undermines the SDF’s push for autonomy, according to Ogur.
"The inevitable consequence of an excessive nationalist drift - separate nation states, federations, administrative autonomy, and culturalist solutions - fails to address the sociology of historical societies," Ocalan said in his address, effectively abandoning his previous stance demanding cultural autonomy.
Firat adds that Turkey could continue military operations against the PKK and even escalate action against the SDF in Syria if the group refuses to integrate into the new Syrian government, which is close to Ankara.
According to Ogur, Abdi had been in favour of reconciliation with Ahmed al-Sharaa's administration in Damascus, but the PKK leadership in Qandil prevented it.
"The PKK was insisting on waiting for Israel and the US," he added. "Turkey is encouraging the SDF to become a political organisation through its political wing, the Democratic Union Party [PYD], and to participate in the Syrian constitutional process, enter elections, and pursue its struggle through political means."
Ogur acknowledges that there are individuals within both Dem, a pro-Kurdish Turkish political party, and the PKK who view Ocalan’s order to disband as a step too far.
"But it would be very difficult for the PKK leadership to ignore this order, since Ocalan also sent separate letters to the Qandil mountains, and everyone was kept in the loop," Ogur said, adding that Ocalan is regarded as a semi-divine figure within the organisation.
Ankara has already engaged with Salih Muslim, the co-chairman of PYD between 2013-2015.
One unpredictable factor is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Throughout this process, Erdogan has maintained a low profile, only making occasional remarks to show his support for the process.
However, Ogur believes Erdogan could present this as a major political victory, portraying himself as the leader who definitively ended the PKK.
"The very existence of the PKK would be void and null, allowing many political prisoners to be freed since most are imprisoned on charges of belonging to a terrorist organisation," Ogur said.
"I know that the government is already studying this option."
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