Will Sisi sacrifice Gaza's Palestinians to maintain Gulf and US support for his rule?

Since the Camp David Accords in 1978, Egypt has been the primary Arab country with real influence over the Palestinian issue, especially after its exit from the equation of direct confrontation with Israel. Until recently, Egypt monopolised the Arab voice in speaking on behalf of the Palestinian cause. 

But after the military coup in 2013, Egypt’s regional role diminished as the state accumulated debt and the Egyptian economy became increasingly fragile, while Gulf countries gained more influence by offering Cairo a financial lifeline. 

Egypt was no longer the sole actor in the Palestinian file. The centre of gravity in the Arab world shifted from Egypt to Saudi Arabia, which began playing an important role not only regionally, but also internationally.

At the same time, with the normalisation of relations between Israel and some Gulf states under the Abraham Accords, these countries emerged as key players in the Palestinian issue, surpassing the traditional roles of Egypt and Jordan. 

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar have gained significant influence, whether through funding for Gaza or political mediation between Israel and the Palestinians.

After the military coup led by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Cairo’s foreign policy shifted, prioritising Sisi’s personal interests and those of his inner circle over Egypt’s national security. 

This became evident when Egypt ceded the strategic Tiran and Sanafir islands to Saudi Arabia in exchange for Riyadh’s support. Saudi Arabia and the UAE became the primary sponsors of the Sisi regime, which redefined the concept of national security based on the interests of its Gulf patrons. 

Tightened control

These Gulf states view Islamist movements as a direct threat, and Egypt aligned with this stance, extending its fight against Islamists to include Hamas, seeing it as an arm of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Despite Hamas officially severing ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and amending its 1988 founding charter in 2017 to remove references to the group, Egyptian authorities continued to view the group as an adversary.

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After the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack in southern Israel, Egypt and the Gulf states found their interests aligned with Israel’s in seeking to eliminate the group. They feared that any Hamas victory would boost popular support for armed resistance on the Arab streets, posing a threat to their own regimes. 

As part of this strategy, Egypt tightened its control over the Rafah border crossing to further isolate Gaza. Eliminating Hamas became a crucial goal for Sisi, in order to remove any obstacles to a “new reality” in Gaza, which could include the Palestinian Authority governing the enclave after the war.

A mass displacement from Gaza to Sinai would effectively end the dream of an independent Palestine

With the departure in Washington of the Biden administration, which enabled the genocide in Gaza, new questions swirled about the “day after” the war. President Donald Trump’s return to power revived talk of his “deal of the century”; his proposal to displace Palestinians from Gaza gave it a clearer shape. 

During Trump’s first term, Sisi expressed support for the “deal of the century” - but Cairo has firmly rejected the US president’s proposal to push Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt and Jordan. The Egyptian military views this proposal as a real threat to the nation’s security, amid fears that a forced displacement of Palestinians into Sinai would alter the region’s demographic identity. 

Resettling Palestinian refugees in Sinai could lead to long-term tensions between the Egyptian state and local populations, and destroy any chance of establishing a future Palestinian state. A mass displacement from Gaza to Sinai would effectively end the dream of an independent Palestine by gradually eliminating the refugee issue.

Significant risks

Such a scenario would deal a major blow to Egypt’s regional standing, as it would be seen as complicit in liquidating the Palestinian cause. There are also significant security and economic risks, as the arrival of large numbers of Palestinian refugees would strain Sinai’s already struggling infrastructure. Over time, these refugees could become a permanent pressure point for Egypt.

Amid these concerns, Sisi is also facing uncertainty over his political future beyond 2030. Under the current constitution, he can remain in power only until that time. Any further constitutional amendments to potentially extend his rule further would likely require support from Trump, who once referred to Sisi as his “favourite dictator”.

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Would Sisi trade acceptance of the displacement plan for ensuring his continued rule? This remains a key question in Egyptian political circles. The answer depends in part on the position of the Gulf states backing the Egyptian regime.

Despite the Egyptian military’s opposition to the displacement plan, it ultimately follows political directives. If there is an agreement between Egypt’s political leadership and regional and international powers, the military may have to accept compromises, such as establishing buffer zones under Egyptian security control, without formally recognising them as a permanent solution.

Gaza is not just a border area for Egypt; it is a key element of its national security, regional policy and economy, and potentially its future demographic balance. Any scenario involving Gaza - whether war, reconstruction or displacement - directly impacts Egypt and places it at the centre of regional power dynamics. 

Cairo must therefore strive to maintain its role as a principal player in Gaza, while working to prevent any scenario that could shift the geopolitical balance in favour of other actors.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.