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Gaza ceasefire: Will Trump end Netanyahu's rule?

Netanyahu may find himself unable to maintain his governing coalition in light of internal and external developments, potentially pushing him towards early elections
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pictured in Tel Aviv on 16 December 2024 (Stoyan Nenov/AFP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pictured in Tel Aviv on 16 December 2024 (Stoyan Nenov/AFP)

The Gaza ceasefire agreement, landing on the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, reflected the high priority of this deal for the Trump administration.

But in Israel, it has caused heated debate, with far-right politicians baulking at the prospect. Settlements Minister Orit Strook, who has called for a long-term occupation of Gaza, called the exchange deal a “reward for terrorism”.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s opposition reportedly held up final approval of the agreement, while National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir resigned over what he termed a “surrender deal”.

In a last-minute meeting with Smotrich recently, Netanyahu emphasised that Israel must ensure Trump’s continued support, asserting that it is absolutely forbidden to damage our relationship with Trump.

Netanyahu’s position appears to be increasingly aligning with that of the Israeli military, acknowledging that continued bloodshed in Gaza does not enhance Israel's strategic stance, particularly given the rising number of Israeli casualties. 

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The central question is whether Netanyahu will ultimately prioritise his country’s national security interests or succumb to the threats of Ben Gvir, Smotrich and Strook, who wield significant influence within the religious Zionist movement.

Netanyahu is likely hoping to stabilise his coalition by structuring the deal in phases. This allows Israel to maintain control over strategic areas, such as the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors, for a period of time while retaining the ability to launch military operations. 

The issue of governing Gaza, or the “day after” the war, would be deferred to a later stage. But far-right politicians remain unconvinced.

Shifting dynamics

The coming days will reveal whether Israel’s far right will see their gamble on Trump pay off or if his return to the White House will mark the beginning of the end of their dream to eliminate the Palestinian cause and annex the West Bank – the crown jewel of their settler-colonial project, rooted in a messianic, biblical ideology.

Wealthy American supporters of this bloc donated millions of dollars to Trump’s re-election campaign, hoping that he would back annexation. However, Trump’s selection of Israel hawks for his administration does not preclude him from shifting gears amid changing regional dynamics.


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Netanyahu, who has withstood repeated domestic political challenges and attempts by the Biden administration to undermine his rule, is stronger than he was a year ago. But he now faces his greatest challenge yet. Will he align with Trump’s international priorities or succumb to the demands of the extreme right?

After Trump’s election, Israel Our Home party leader Avigdor Lieberman warned that Netanyahu’s coalition would be unable to reconcile its own policies with those of the Trump administration, suggesting that Netanyahu might even “turn on his coalition” if that were the only way to retain power. 

This analysis was based on the bipartisan US priority of normalising relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, a move that hinges on the establishment of a Palestinian state as outlined in the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002.

The level of concern among the Israeli far right regarding Trump's new term appears to outweigh the optimism that previously prevailed

If this course of action is pursued, it would spell the end of Netanyahu’s governing coalition and shatter the far right’s ambitions. 

Smotrich has already declared that 2025 is the year for imposing Israeli “sovereignty” over the West Bank - effectively annexation. However, such aspirations could be thwarted if normalisation efforts prevail and the formation of a Palestinian state takes precedence on the regional agenda.

Despite the Israeli right’s reliance on Trump, his current priorities differ from those that dominated his previous term - not necessarily due to a shift in his perspective, but because of regional and international changes. Israel’s strategic role and influence, once heavily leveraged in the Abraham Accords and the “deal of the century”, have significantly declined. 

The concept of forming an Israeli-Arab regional military alliance, centred around Israel against Iran, has also waned. This diminishing influence, coupled with Israel’s internal crises, gives Trump, who has previously criticised Netanyahu’s policies, little incentive to base his agenda on Israel’s priorities.

Domestic instability

Meanwhile, the priorities of the Arab region, particularly the Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia, are increasingly centred on their own strategic interests in the quest to establish a new, multipolar global order. To this end, they are leveraging their roles in global trade, their oil and gas reserves, and their efforts to stabilise regional tensions. 

Israel’s policies are perceived as an overall threat to Arab national security, and no US president can afford to ignore these dynamics.

On the domestic front, as Netanyahu battles to save his career, religious Zionist parties also face fractures and divisions. Signs of this include Jewish Power party member Almog Cohen opposing his party’s position on the state budget, alongside growing discontent within the Religious Zionism party towards the leadership of Smotrich.

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Netanyahu also recognises that the coalition of these parties with ultra-Orthodox Haredi factions is increasingly unstable. Two members of the Shas party recently called for a formal inquiry into the failures of 7 October 2023 - Netanyahu’s worst fear. Although these calls were later walked back amid party pressure, the incident reflects broader doubts about the coalition’s viability.

The primary point of alignment between Netanyahu and Trump may be their shared stance on Iran. But contrary to Netanyahu’s ambitions for a direct regional war against Iran, the new US administration may instead favour reaching a new nuclear deal, which Iran appears ready to pursue.

In summary, Trump’s priorities could potentially lead to the end of Netanyahu’s rule. The Israeli leader may find himself unable to maintain his governing coalition in light of internal and external developments, potentially pushing him towards early elections, which could prompt other Likud leaders to move against him.

The level of concern among the Israeli far right regarding Trump’s new term appears to outweigh the optimism that previously prevailed. While Palestinians and Arabs cannot rely on Trump having changed, he is nonetheless compelled to adapt his policies to the evolving dynamics of the region and the world.

A decisive factor for Trump could be the establishment of an internationally supported, unified regional position on the establishment of a Palestinian state. While this would not likely lead the US to push for the creation of a Palestinian state, it could compel it to prevent Israeli annexation of the West Bank and permanently halt the Gaza genocide. 

Still, regardless of the Israeli right’s potential disappointment with Trump, Washington will remain, at its core, the primary and most steadfast supporter of Israeli aggression.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

Ameer Makhoul is a leading Palestinian activist and writer in the 48 Palestinians community. He is the former director of Ittijah, a Palestinian NGO in Israel. He was detained by Israel for ten years.
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