The Gaza playbook: Israel's five-step ethnic cleansing strategy
The notion of "Greater Israel" represents a foundational goal of Zionism and the Israeli political elite.
For decades, Israel has worked to carry out the mass transfer of Arab populations from historic Palestine.
For Israel's current leadership, as well as large swathes of Israeli society, the war on Gaza has presented what they see as a pivotal opportunity: the chance to remove Palestinians from Gaza once and for all.
Since the beginning of the war in October 2023, Israel has signalled its desire to rid Gaza of its Palestinian population. For most of the war, however, Israeli leaders have been hesitant to state the plan - which amounts to ethnic cleansing - explicitly.
As Israel moves closer to implementing its overarching goal, it is important to examine its path towards ethnic cleansing, which follows a comprehensive five-step programme.
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Israel is a veteran of ethnic cleansing - having carried out, in 1948, one of the largest such campaigns of modern times. Since then, it has continued a slower-motion campaign, primarily in the West Bank, where it has seized vast tracts of Palestinian land, established more than 200 illegal settlements and outposts and brought in approximately 700,000 illegal Israeli settlers.
Israel's illegal settlement expansion programme involves routine land confiscation, home and neighbourhood demolitions, and forced population transfer.
Step 1 - Muzzling the media
Drawing on decades of practice removing Palestinians from their land, the current Israeli leadership recognised that, as a first step to depopulating Gaza, critical media coverage needed to be limited as much as possible. To this end, and from the start of the war, Israel cut Gaza off from the outside world.
In October 2023, Israel tightened the seals on Gaza's borders and barred international journalists from entering the strip. That same month, it informed Agence France-Presse and Reuters that it could not guarantee the safety of their journalists in Gaza.
During ceasefire negotiations in November 2023, Israel's closest ally and chief financier, the US, reportedly expressed concern that a temporary pause in fighting could allow greater international media access to Gaza. In response, Israel and the US likely worked to ensure the continued closure of Gaza's borders during what turned out to be a six-day pause in hostilities.
Drawing on decades of practice, Israeli leaders recognised that, as a first step to depopulating Gaza, critical media coverage needed to be limited as much as possible
Israel has also systematically targeted journalists - more than 200 have been killed in Gaza so far, a world record in modern conflict.
Two weeks ago, Israel bombed a media tent, burning Palestinian journalist Ahmad Mansour alive. His final moments were captured in harrowing mobile phone footage.
Israel has additionally banned multiple media outlets within its own borders and shut down Al Jazeera offices in both Israel and the West Bank.
Step 2 - Shrinking the population
The second step of Israel's ethnic cleansing plan has involved exterminating as many Palestinians as possible, mostly through relentless, large-scale aerial bombardment. In a cabinet meeting in late 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of his desire to "thin" the population "to a minimum".
To this end, Israel has dropped thousands of bombs indiscriminately on the tiny enclave, killing tens of thousands of Palestinians - overwhelmingly women and children.
Israel has not sought to avoid civilian casualties - rather, it has pursued them as a matter of policy. Perhaps the most chilling illustration of this is its 100:1 targeting ratio, a system that allows the Israeli military to kill "more than 100" civilians in the course of targeting a single Hamas commander.
Various "kill zone" policies ensure that Israeli soldiers shoot first and ask questions later. As one Israeli commander recently told troops: "Everyone you encounter is an enemy. If you see a figure, open fire, neutralise the threat, and keep moving. Do not hesitate and do not second-guess."
In December 2023, Israel killed three of its own captives who had wandered into an arbitrarily demarcated kill zone, despite waving white flags. Palestinians are routinely gunned down in these zones.
Bombings and shootings have not been the only means through which Israel has sought to reduce Gaza's population. It has also pursued a policy of forced starvation.
Retired Israeli general Giora Eiland told Israeli media in early October 2023 that it was necessary to create a "humanitarian crisis" in Gaza. Later, Eiland published a "Generals' Plan" outlining a starvation strategy in which Palestinians would be given a choice to either "surrender or starve".
Israel appears to have followed Eiland's instruction. Throughout the war, it has blocked the entry of food and water into Gaza. In the summer of 2024, the United Nations declared that famine had taken hold and that numerous children had died from malnutrition.
Human Rights Watch, Euro-Med Monitor and B'Tselem - among other rights groups - have concluded that Israel has been deliberately starving Palestinians, with Human Rights Watch stating that Israel has used "starvation as a weapon of war".
Step 3 - Destroying the healthcare system
The third step of Israel's ethnic cleansing programme dovetails with the second. Here, Israel has sought to destroy as much of Gaza's healthcare system as it can. This has ensured the continued suffering - and in many cases, slow deaths - of thousands injured in the bombings.
As part of this effort, Israel has systematically attacked and destroyed hospitals. In December 2024, the UN Human Rights Office stated that such attacks had brought Gaza's health system "to the brink of total collapse, with catastrophic effect on Palestinians' access to health and medical care".
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It has also targeted health workers, killing more than 1,000 doctors and nurses and arresting or torturing over 300 others, according to Gaza's government media office.
In December, Israel abducted the director of one of Gaza's last functioning hospitals. Last month, it killed 15 paramedics and rescue workers and buried them in a mass grave with their ambulances.
Crucially, Israel has also worked methodically to block the entry of essential medical supplies. A 2024 CNN investigation found that it prevented the entry of "anaesthetics and anaesthesia machines, oxygen cylinders, ventilators and water filtration systems", as well as "medicines to treat cancer… and maternity kits… crutches, generators… [and] x-ray machines", among other items.
The lack of anaesthetics has meant that many Palestinians - including children - have had limbs amputated without anaesthesia. The lack of fuel needed to power generators has caused incubators to fail, leading to the deaths of newborns.
American doctor Mark Perlmutter, who recently served in Gaza, said surgeons work "without soap, antibiotics or x-ray facilities" and noted that patients routinely die due to the lack of supplies.
Another American doctor, Samer Attar, who also volunteered in Gaza, described the slow death of a small boy who was "missing skin over half of his body" after an Israeli bombing. Doctors were unable to save him. "We just sat back and helplessly watched him die," said Attar.
Israel's strategy fulfils a promise made by then-Defence Minister Yoav Gallant at the war's outset, when he announced a "complete siege" of Gaza, declaring there would be "no electricity, no food, no fuel".
It is also consistent with Eiland's advice to Israel's defence ministry. In a November 2023 op-ed in Yedioth Ahronoth, Eiland suggested that "severe epidemics" would "bring victory closer [to Israel]" - a view endorsed by senior Israeli figures including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
Step 4 - Rendering Gaza uninhabitable
The first through third steps alone are sufficient to create a hellscape. But the fourth may be the most critical component of Israel's ethnic cleansing effort.
Here, Israel has sought to make Gaza so uninhabitable that Palestinians have no choice but to flee.
Israel has sought to make Gaza so uninhabitable that Palestinians have no choice but to flee
It has systematically destroyed homes, schools, universities, shelters and roads. According to Doctors Without Borders, by January, more than 90 percent of Gaza's housing units had been completely or partially destroyed.
Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, after visiting Gaza in January, said there was "almost nothing left". He dismissed reconstruction plans as "impossible".
Shortly after, Trump referred to Gaza as a "demolition site".
These comments were not neutral observations but tacit endorsements of Israel's plan. The logic goes: since Gaza is now a wasteland, the "humane" response is to relocate its remaining residents.
Step 5 - Diplomatic legitimisation
Israel hopes that the fifth step will serve as the final stage in the complete ethnic cleansing of Gaza. This step centres on aggressive political manoeuvring and logistical coordination to advance that goal.
In January, Trump proposed the mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza - a plan Israel immediately endorsed.
But the so-called "Trump proposal" did not originate with Trump. It began in Israel as part of its broader "Greater Israel" vision and longstanding ethnic cleansing strategy.
Branding it a "Trump plan" helps shield Israel and lend the plan credibility.
Beyond branding, Israel has set up an agency to facilitate Gaza's depopulation, announced the seizure of territory within the strip, and lobbied third countries - including Somalia and South Sudan - to accept Palestinians.
Whether Israel will succeed remains unclear. A complete ethnic cleansing seems unlikely for now.
Many Palestinians have rejected the plan, and the Arab League has proposed its own five-year reconstruction initiative.
Still, the short-term outlook is uncertain - to say nothing of the long-term.
What happens when there is nothing left to destroy, no nation offers refuge and Palestinians refuse to leave?
These are open questions.
Even if Israel's plan ultimately fails - and most of the international community hopes it does - it will have left behind something dangerous: a 21st-century blueprint for ethnic cleansing.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
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