How Trump's grand design for the Middle East could leave Israel in the dust
US President Donald Trump’s recent trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates had a dual purpose.
The primary goal was to make “America First” a global brand - not just a vision for the United States and its people, but also a political and economic aspiration for as many other countries as possible, stemming from the exceptionalist belief that, regardless of whether a Republican or Democrat is in the White House, what’s good for the US is good for the world.
Of course, Trump took the shortcut of picking three of the richest countries in the world to invest in the American economy.
There is no doubt that over the last quarter of a century, “America” as a brand has suffered periods of extended reputational damage. Its endless wars in the Middle East fuelled chaos and illegal migration flows; its sanctions policies irked enemies and allies alike; and Wall Street’s unregulated financial schemes led to a global financial crisis with massive consequences.
At the same time, debates over “woke” and “cancel culture” have created an unprecedented level of internal polarisation, pitting large numbers of Americans against each other. And as economic policies continue to privilege the richest elites, inequalities and grievances are rising, while the national debt has skyrocketed to an unsustainable $36 trillion.
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An emerging multipolar political and economic order, exemplified by Brics and the rise of China, outlines a potential alternative to the “rules-based order” anchored on US hegemony. Amid this backdrop, Trump went to the Gulf in an attempt to rebrand his country and make it attractive again after his initial missteps, including indiscriminate tariffs, stirred widespread anger.
Trump's tariffs put at risk even the holiest of US holy grails: Treasury bonds, whose interest rate recently came close to the dangerous ceiling of five percent, making the refinancing of the country’s astronomical debt anything but easy.
Pax Americana
In rebranding the US according to Trump’s vision, there are no taboos. Even the most exorbitant privilege, the US dollar as the global reserve currency, can be discussed. Trump’s economic advisers now suggest that this status is no longer an asset, but rather a liability reflected in the country’s huge trade deficit.
One cautionary note: Washington is not ready to abandon this privilege, even if it now considers it a burden. Rather, it is pretending that the rest of the world is obliged to reimburse it.
The second purpose of Trump’s Gulf trip was to relaunch “Pax Americana” in the Middle East, which has long maintained its strategic importance. The region is a crucial energy hub and trade route, while its instability can be leveraged against recalcitrant allies and unresponsive adversaries.
Heightened tensions could trigger the “migration weapon”, a source of terror for Europe and fragile regional US allies, such as Egypt and Jordan. Listing or rebranding groups as “terrorist” entities could aggravate Russia’s soft underbelly, populated by Muslim minority communities.
At the same time, targeted and synchronised energy policies involving major regional oil producers could divide Opec+ and put pressure on China, which is highly dependent on Gulf oil.
A renewed Pax Americana in the Middle East could also help to counter or contain developing trade routes between the Far East and Europe, of which China’s Belt and Road Initiative is the most significant element.
The implicit message conveyed to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states from Trump was: “You can either play around with global oil prices within Opec+ and take a chance on a still-emerging alternative global order with China, or deal with me on a tenfold more rewarding economic partnership - the choice is yours.”
Bypassing Tel Aviv
For now, Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi opted for the latter, as they competed to pamper Trump with $3 trillion in forward investments. Some figures seem difficult to believe, like the 10-year, $1.4 trillion deal with the UAE, whose annual GDP is just around $500bn. But what is important for Trump now is the effect of these announcements on global markets and investors.
The generosity of Gulf rulers might reflect a serious and definitive choice, or an incredibly expensive move to buy time; it’s too early to say.
The other interesting aspect of the trip is the place of Israel in this evolving regional mosaic. Before his Gulf visit, Trump took a series of decisions that were clearly unpleasant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his team: bypassing Tel Aviv to negotiate directly with Hamas; making a separate deal with the Houthis in Yemen that did not protect Israel; re-engaging in nuclear talks with Iran; and entertaining massive deals with Saudi Arabia without requiring it to normalise ties with Israel.
Trump appears to be slowly realising that Israel might be more of a liability than an asset in his grand regional reordering
Trump appears to be slowly realising that Israel might be more of a liability than an asset in his grand regional reordering. Whether this is accurate - and above all, whether it is restricted only to Netanyahu and his genocidal associates, or conceals a far more dangerous perspective about Israel’s overall role in the region - once again, only time will tell.
The gold standard of US policy in the Middle East seems to be dead and buried. Trump is ready to break any scheme, diplomatic tradition or custom, as seen in his recent meeting with Syria’s interim leader and the lifting of sanctions on Damascus - even as the new regime has not yet provided any guarantee of a more inclusive policy, and sectarian killings continue.
As European leaders jointly board trains headed nowhere, Trump seems determined to set new rules, partnering with those he deems more “stable and reliable”, like Gulf rulers and the president of Turkey - hoping that one day, far bigger players, like the presidents of China and Russia, will join his grand design, itself built upon the concept that business deals can heal anything.
Good luck.
Everyone should be quick to fasten their seatbelt - starting with Netanyahu.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
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