How Lebanon’s surprise marches of return have snatched victory from Israel

For two consecutive Sundays, the people of southern Lebanon risked their lives to return to their homes and land, after domestic, regional and global actors failed to enforce a deadline for Israel’s withdrawal from the territory it has occupied for months.
On 26 January, the first Sunday, Israeli forces opened fire on the unarmed civilian crowds returning home, killing at least 22 people and injuring more than 120. But the people’s determination and sacrifice overwhelmed the Israelis, who pulled out of most border villages.
Their costly, yet successful return reaffirmed the value of resistance to Israeli occupation.
During the 60-day ceasefire period that began in late November, Hezbollah ceased its attacks against Israel forces, and there was no visible armed presence. In contrast, Israel reportedly violated the ceasefire deal signed with Lebanon hundreds of times by flying drones across Lebanese skies, abducting and killing civilians and destroying infrastructure. It continues to do so with total impunity.
Israel’s provocative behaviour was egged on by domestic and international actors alike. The United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon, Unifil, which failed to protect Lebanon from Israeli attacks, directed its attention to disarming Hezbollah. It claimed in a statement that more than 100 Hezbollah munition hideouts were discovered in southern Lebanon during the ceasefire period.
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The US and France, which helped to broker the deal, also failed to hold Israel accountable to its obligations. While Paris paid lip service to Lebanon’s sovereignty, Washington applied pressure in the opposite direction, using the threat of a prolonged occupation as a stick to force the hasty election of a new Lebanese president in line with the US policy of realigning Lebanon closer to its camp.
The pressure worked in electing a president and appointing a prime minister in record speed. But the formation of a government has so far stalled, thanks to age-old jockeying for ministerial posts by sectarian factions. The new government’s position vis a vis armed resistance and the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 remains the main bone of contention.
US-backed politicians led by the Lebanese Forces were quick to adopt the biased US interpretation of Resolution 1701, calling for the disarmament of Hezbollah countrywide, and not just south of the Litani River.
Third liberation
Hezbollah’s acquiescence to demands to elect as president Lebanon’s former army chief heightened the impression that its defeat was near complete. Reports of Israel’s plans to stay in Lebanon beyond the 60-day period began to circulate.
But on that weekend the tables were turned with the unexpected popular mobilisation that led to the mass return of Lebanese people to their homes in the south.
The tables were turned with the unexpected popular mobilisation that led to the mass return of Lebanese people to their homes in the south
The Lebanese military, long hailed as the only legitimate force capable of keeping the Israeli army at bay, found itself trailing behind ordinary people. Footage of unarmed women and men braving Israeli tanks brought back memories of similar confrontations before the 2000 liberation.
Despite the significance of what is now termed the third liberation (after 2000 and 2006), the long-term success of this return remains uncertain and fraught with challenges.
Two days after the return of civilians, Israeli air strikes hit the southern city of Nabatieh, wounding 24 people. The occupying army has dug its heels at several border villages, as the Trump administration gave it an extension to remain until 18 February.
This move keeps the south in a constant state of anticipating war. Washington will likely use the lack of finality as a diplomatic baton to force its agenda on Lebanon’s new government and the plans for reconstruction.
Uncertain future
In addition to the difficulties of rebuilding under conditions of insecurity, the scale of destruction - with entire villages razed - will require billions of dollars in aid.
The US and its allies hope to use this aid as a means of decoupling armed resistance from the political consciousness of the people.
The discourse of state-monopolised aid, while sensible at face value, could be one strategy to do so. Domestic cartels are also reportedly vying to extort top prices to remove rubble.
The country’s political future hangs in the balance. Burying the idea of armed resistance in the rubble of political defeatism will undermine Lebanon as the remaining active front outside of historic Palestine in the liberation of the Palestinian people. It will also reverse the principle of joint fronts that was strengthened after 7 October 2023 but shaken after the signing of a ceasefire deal just over a year later.
Geopolitical shifts, including the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, have cast a massive shadow over the viability of the military strategy of the axis of resistance. Forces of normalisation are seeking to capitalise on this to undermine the logic of resistance, rather than offering constructive criticism to avoid failures in the future.
In a recent speech, Hezbollah’s new secretary general, Naim Qassim, remained vague about his party’s next steps. He affirmed the right to resist occupation so long as it exists, but stopped short of declaring the intention to resume military operations.
Instead, he continued to lay the responsibility at the feet of the Lebanese state and army. This is a double-edged policy. The failure of the Lebanese government to end the occupation will highlight the necessity of the resistance. The non-retaliation of Hezbollah for too long, however, will further erode trust in its capabilities.
For now, everyone seems to bet on the will of the people.
But the defiant return of the people of southern Lebanon under highly unfavourable conditions, coupled with the unrivalled image of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians returning to northern Gaza, has derailed plans to co-opt resistance through normalisation.
The normalisation train is still running, but the marches of return in Lebanon and Gaza are a reminder that its destination is not inevitable, thanks to what lies at the root of resistance: people power united around the project of liberation.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
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