Syria after Assad: How to rebuild from the ashes of war
Two months have passed since the fall of the Assad regime, notorious for its crimes against humanity. After immense suffering and loss, it is time to transition to a period of strategic rebuilding: creating a new Syria as a beacon of peace and stability in the region.
While revolutions are inherently challenging, the real test lies in building a just and stable nation, after its people have paid a heavy price for freedom.
As a longtime friend and supporter of Syria, I offer my insights and recommendations to the new administration, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, as well as to regional and international leaders.
Syria’s success in transforming its revolution into a stable political framework will not only secure its future, but also bring stability to the entire region. Conversely, a failure to do so risks the chaos of foreign intervention, proxy wars, and the rise of terrorism.
Rebuilding Syria requires addressing seven pillars of a new national order. These include aligning citizenship with national identity; addressing trauma and refugee reintegration; balancing geography with national stability; tackling production and employment; ensuring freedom and justice under the constitution; building institutions; and strengthening international relations.
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Each of these presents a challenge to Syria’s reconstruction as a nation-state. Almost every country faces similar challenges today in the Middle East, a region fragmented by the Sykes-Picot map drawn by British and French colonial powers in 1916, further disrupted by the establishment of Israel after World War II, divided during the Cold War, and shaken by the Arab Spring.
Anyone attempting to maintain a political order must acknowledge that the Middle East is a region where the cultural diversity of humankind is profoundly reflected on the stage of history.
National reconciliation
States unable to harmonise cultural and political identities cannot survive, no matter how powerful their armies are. The collapse of Saddam Hussein’s Baathist regime in Iraq and Bashar al-Assad’s Baathist regime in Syria stemmed primarily from their reliance on sectarian solidarity within the Baathist ideology, which hindered the development of a shared sense of citizenship.
The quickest way to foster a shared sense of identity is to initiate national reconciliation. Healing the wounds caused by the Baathist regime’s minority dictatorship, and enabling people to return home to their regions, can only be achieved through an inclusive national reconciliation effort.
The key lies in embracing a vision of cultural pluralism that integrates fundamental human rights with the region's diverse cultural heritage
Lessons must be drawn from the ethnic-sectarian political models in Lebanon and Iraq, and particularly from the ethno-political divisions and their consequences in post-Saddam Iraq. The alternative to minority dictatorship cannot be majoritarian dominance.
A national reconciliation assembly must be formed that is capable of representing all ethnic, sectarian and religious communities in Syria, including Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen, Sunnis, Alawites, Druze and Christians, among others. Alawites must not be excluded or subjected to retaliatory measures due to the crimes committed by the previous regime.
Initiatives such as the gathering of leaders from various religious groups for local reconciliation efforts, as seen in Latakia in the early days of the new administration, are of critical importance for overcoming this sensitive period.
The participation of the Druze community in Suwayda, which supported the revolution, and Christian representatives throughout Syria in national reconciliation efforts would enhance social trust.
Integrating Kurds and Turkmen in northern Syria into the system, and ensuring the full incorporation of regions under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the new administration as integral components, would also counteract attempts to divide Syria.
Rehabilitation and resettlement
One of the most critical elements of the transitional process will be ensuring a return to normal living conditions, to meet the basic needs of the population. A “Human Rehabilitation and Resettlement Institution” should be created to aid those who have lost loved ones, orphaned children, and prisoners who have spent years in detention, as well as to resettle refugees who were forced to abandon their homes.
Efforts to fragment Syria - akin to the “divide-and-rule” strategy implemented by French colonial powers - must be resisted. The immediate priority is to unify the spine of Syria (the crucial Aleppo-Hama-Homs-Damascus-Daraa corridor) and its wings (the Levant coastal zone and the Mesopotamian region east of the Euphrates) under a single security structure within the Syrian National Army.
Control over the north-south spine is critical, as it directly influences Syria’s governance. But if the Levant and Mesopotamian wings remain politically, economically and culturally disconnected from the spine, Syria jeopardises both its maritime access to the west and its territorial integrity in the east.
Resistance groups, alongside loyal military personnel, must first be organised into a coordinated force, formalised into a military hierarchy. This step is vital for building public trust and safeguarding Syria’s unity and territorial integrity.
It is essential for the US-controlled SDF to cut ties with terrorist groups and integrate into this centralised security framework. The challenges of unifying a national security apparatus in a post-conflict environment, where militia factions dominate, are well-documented in the experiences of Lebanon and Iraq.
Beyond internal security, this geopolitical structure is pivotal to Syria’s regional relations. The north-south spine links Syria to Europe and the Black Sea through Turkey, while also extending to the Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf via Jordan. It shares the Mesopotamian area with Turkey and Iraq, and connects to the Eastern Mediterranean-Levant region via Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine and Egypt.
Syria’s people urgently need basic necessities, such as shelter and food, from the new administration. But beyond immediate relief, the economy needs a long-term reform strategy for recovery.
Economic recovery
The initial phase of economic rehabilitation should focus on economic mobilisation to combat widespread poverty; recovering assets looted by the Assad and Makhlouf families; lifting the embargoes imposed on Syria; encouraging Syrian investors abroad to return; and establishing a fund with international contributions, particularly from the Islamic Development Bank, to rebuild the country’s collapsed infrastructure. These efforts should prioritise the revival of agriculture, industry and energy production.
The sustainable long-term development of the Syrian economy is directly tied to the geopolitical and geo-economic characteristics mentioned earlier. The key elements that offer Syria a relative competitive advantage are intrinsically linked to its strategic and geo-economic location.
Syria lies along an optimal logistics corridor, connecting the Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf to the Mediterranean via land routes, and to Europe through Turkey. By modernising its highway and railway infrastructure, Syria could facilitate swift access to Europe from the Gulf - and the fact that most of this corridor consists of flat terrain would minimise transportation costs, providing a significant advantage.
Syria’s position also allows it to serve as a key transit route for regional energy resources. Situated in the Fertile Crescent, it has the opportunity to undertake advanced agricultural reforms, focusing on organic food production, which would also support employment for returning refugees.
In addition, Syria’s rich history and cultural heritage sites in cities like Damascus, Palmyra and Aleppo offer great potential for religious and cultural tourism, a valuable revenue stream.
Breaking the cycle
Assad’s focus on state security eradicated freedoms, ultimately sparking Syria’s civil war and enabling terrorist groups to stoke further chaos. The new administration must break this cycle. The key lies in embracing a vision of cultural pluralism that integrates fundamental human rights with the region’s diverse cultural heritage.
The new government, expected to form in March, must focus on restoring public order, establishing security, and ensuring a constitutional system. A four-year election timeline, as proposed by Sharaa, may be necessary - but this period must be used to create civic public order, reactivate the justice system, foster national reconciliation, and draft a new constitution.
Unpunished oppression will destabilise public trust, while unjust practices like extrajudicial killings will fracture the population
Delaying the restoration of public order for even a day could foment internal tensions, potentially paving the way for another dictatorial regime. The lessons from the 1960s coups, which led to Hafez al-Assad’s rise, must not be forgotten.
To implement civil public order, resistance forces should transition into regular police and military structures. The central government must be reactivated with a civilian character, and local committees should take the lead in governance. These efforts, backed by an untainted bureaucracy, will be pivotal for a successful transition.
The judicial process must ensure fair trials for those responsible for crimes against humanity, avoiding revenge or collective punishment. Unpunished oppression will destabilise public trust, while unjust practices like extrajudicial killings will fracture the population.
An advisory assembly composed of opinion leaders who have raised their voices against Baathist oppression would significantly contribute to the smooth progression of the process, and to the resolution of potential crises.
Global recognition
In the short term, Syria should revitalise its contacts with the United Nations, the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. It should encourage countries to reopen embassies in Damascus, and adopt a firm stance against Israel’s actions - especially its treatment of Gaza - while advocating for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the occupied Quneitra region, seeking support from the UN and regional organisations.
In the longer term, Syria must remain steadfast in supporting the Palestinian cause until an independent state is established. It should reject normalisation with Israel until it withdraws from occupied Syrian territories, particularly the Golan Heights; avoid involvement in regional rivalries and proxy wars; and contribute to the creation of a regional peace and stability framework.
We are witnessing the birth of a new Syria - a process where significant challenges and opportunities are intertwined.
To Sharaa and his inner circle, I say: this victory belongs not only to you, but also to the hundreds of thousands of martyrs who gave their lives during the war, targeted by barrel bombs and chemical weapons in Syrian cities, and tortured in prisons.
Resist the temptation to isolate yourselves in luxurious palaces. Instead, remain among the people, who are the true owners of this revolution. Avoid internal conflicts, and do not limit yourselves to narrow alliances. From this point forward, foster a culture of cooperation that includes all the people of Syria.
To regional countries and their leaders, I say: Syria belongs to Syrians. Do not create spheres of influence through ethno-sectarian biases.
I propose staging a “Summit of Syria’s Neighbours” in Damascus, where a strong declaration could be made in support of Syria’s territorial integrity, internal peace, economic development and the return of refugees.
External powers
Iran, which supported the Assad regime, must avoid exacerbating Syria’s chaos. Tehran’s interest lies in ensuring that the new administration establishes a state of stability that includes all factions and counters Israel’s expansionist ambitions. A Syria plunged back into conflict would benefit only Israel, not Iran.
For the US and Russia, the most pressing task is to secure a UN Security Council resolution that guarantees Syria’s territorial integrity, lifts the embargoes imposed on the country, and supports its transition process.
The biggest mistake that western leaders, particularly US President Donald Trump, could make would be to view Syria through the lens of Israel’s security. This neocolonial approach has fuelled anti-American and anti-western sentiment in the region.
Any attempts by Israel to annex the West Bank or create conditions in southern Syria like those in Lebanon, where Israel operates freely, will only escalate tensions.
The Trump administration must take immediate steps to secure Israel’s withdrawal from the Syrian territories it occupies, and support the disbanding of all terrorist groups and militias in Syria. Without a stable Syria, the Palestinian issue cannot be effectively dealt with, nor can Lebanon’s stability or regional peace be achieved.
As for Russia, distancing itself from the new administration due to Moscow’s previous ties with Assad would be a grave mistake. Russia’s engagement with the new administration will be crucial for both its own interests and regional stability.
Russia’s most significant contribution to Syria’s internal peace would be urging Assad, whom it hosts, to refrain from statements and actions that could harm this critical transition process.
The road ahead
The international community, particularly the UN, also has an essential role in ensuring Syria’s transition is smooth. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who witnessed Syria’s suffering as the organisation’s high commissioner for refugees for a decade (2005-2015), is in a unique position to contribute positively to Syria’s future. Today, the Syrian people need his and the UN’s support more than ever.
The EU should consider lifting more sanctions to contribute to the rebuilding of the country for Syria’s sake, but also for its own sake, taking into account the likelihood of the return of Syrian refugees.
Syria can ultimately overcome its hardships and emerge stronger, fostering peace, stability and prosperity for its people and the region
When it comes to Ankara, the relationship between Turkey and Syria is far more significant than a mere neighbourly bond; it is founded on mutual trust and respect. Turkey should act with a clear, strategic plan, and it will stand by Syria, facilitating a peaceful and prosperous future.
Turkey’s only goal with regard to Syria’s future should be for the country to live in peace, harmony and prosperity. Turkey has never sought political dominance or economic gain from Syria, and it never will.
At the same time, Turkey should not allow any power, including Israel, to exploit Syria’s suffering for their own strategic interests. Turkey-Syria relations can serve as an exemplary model for peace and prosperity in our region.
Syria can ultimately overcome its hardships and emerge stronger, fostering peace, stability and prosperity for its people and the region. The road to a new Syria is challenging, but it is a road worth traveling.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
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