Syria after Assad: Why EU sanctions relief is crucial

It took almost two months from the fall of the Assad regime for the European Union to announce that it would be lifting some sanctions on Syria.
The US lifted some restrictions on dealings with Syria for six months in the first week of January. The UK has yet to make any move on sanctions.
The EU decision will send a very positive signal to Syrians. The nation’s economy needs lift-off, and sanctions have been one of the anchors weighing it down. Many proponents of lifting sanctions argue that they were imposed on a regime that no longer exists.
Still, all of this highlights a hesitant approach, which speaks volumes about European and American unease about what will happen in Syria, and how to address the new situation.
Most American and European politicians want Syria to recover from more than 50 years of Assad rule and the last 13 years of conflict. Even politicians with typically short memories have been scarred by dangerous post-dictatorship transitions in the past. Many see echoes of Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan.
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The EU’s lifting of sanctions, announced on Monday, is designed to be a “step-by-step approach”, starting with the removal of restrictions that hinder the build-up of the Syrian economy, while military sanctions remain in place.
But the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, made clear that “while we aim to move fast, the lifting of sanctions can be reversed if wrong steps are taken”.
Security fears
Some of the steps outlined point to European security fears, more than a genuine desire to see Syria flourish. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot noted that in exchange for the sanctions relief, Syrian authorities had to assist in eradicating residual chemical weapons stocks and to fight back against any resurgence of the Islamic State (IS) group.
These are important issues, but IS will become far more of a threat if the transition in Syria fails, as the group prospers in failed-state scenarios. Many observers also believe the EU and US will be keen to ensure that Iran is kept out of Syria.
The agricultural sector had previously been a mainstay of the Syrian economy, and its revival could allow Syria to start feeding itself
Washington’s easing of restrictions on Syria also leaves much to be done. The six-month unlocking of restrictions on essential government functions and vital services is not enough to let the Syrian economy take off. Which businesspeople will invest in Syria if they do not have confidence that sanctions are in the past?
Nobody is quite sure how the Trump administration will approach Syria. President Donald Trump does not see the country as being a US concern. His decision to suspend all foreign aid for 90 days will also hit Syria.
In addition, Israel has taken a hostile posture towards the new Syrian authorities, and may well press Trump to keep sanctions in place. Turkey will argue for the lifting of sanctions. Who will Trump listen to?
The future of the transition in Syria is exceptionally fragile. While Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is the leading actor, it has yet to demonstrate with actions that it is prepared to share power and be inclusive.
Other components of Syrian society are increasingly anxious. The reality is that unless HTS shares power, it does not have the capacity or capabilities to rule Syria. It is not strong enough.
The path forward
What sanctions must be lifted to make a difference? Banking sanctions need to go, in order to allow flows of external funds to enter the Syrian economy, including remittances. US sanctions relief is vital for this.
And who could argue against lifting sanctions on the transport sector? Civilian airlines should never have been sanctioned in the first place. Syrians want to get back to work, and to move away from a handout economy where 90 percent of the population depends on humanitarian aid.
The agricultural sector had previously been a mainstay of the Syrian economy, and its revival could allow Syria to start feeding itself. But questions will arise, as they always do with sanctions regimes, about dual-use items. As military and security sanctions remain, will the EU and US allow the export of essential fertilisers to Syria?
Others will be asking about monitoring and verification mechanisms. On what basis would sanctions be reimposed on Syria?
If sanctions are not lifted or at least eased, Syrians may well blame the US and Europe for any failed transition. This is a risk if the transition ultimately crumbles. Conversely, if HTS - as some fear will be the case - reverts to its authoritarian and sectarian past, some may blame external powers for getting too close to Syria’s new authorities.
The position of European powers might seem curious. As the EU lifts sanctions on Syria, it continues to list HTS as a terrorist organisation. It will not recognise the new authority, but its ministers hold meetings with it. Will sanctions relief mean that private individuals can now meet or do business with HTS? At the same time, the EU insists that HTS must confront IS, asking one proscribed group to confront another.
The US and EU can signal a more positive agenda by demonstrating through the lifting of sanctions their wish to see a successful transition and a renewed Syrian economy.
The EU has made a sensible decision; it is cautious but timely. The US and UK would do well to follow. The lifting of sanctions sends out a positive signal that Syria is no longer an international outcast, while the phased implementation reminds HTS and others that they must deliver an inclusive transition for all Syrians - which is the only way Syria will ever recover.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
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