Israel’s attacks on Syria threaten regional stability and will ultimately backfire
On 10 December, mere days after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria, Israel launched the most extensive aerial military campaign in its history against a neighbouring country.
Dubbed "Bashan Arrow", this operation saw 350 Israeli Air Force combat aircraft strike 320 strategic targets across Syria, from Damascus to Tartus.
These included airbases, MiG-29 fighter jets, Scud missile batteries, unmanned aerial vehicles, radar installations and naval ships, among other critical infrastructure.
The offensive wiped out over 70 percent of Syria’s strategic military assets, leaving the country vulnerable to fragmentation and foreign influence.
This aggressive campaign did not occur in isolation. It came within the context of years of tacit understandings between Israel and Assad’s regime, during which Israel had managed its interests in the occupied Golan Heights and viewed Assad as a troublesome yet predictable neighbour.
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The calm on the Golan front, lasting over half a century, was a testament to this uneasy status quo. With Assad gone, Israel appears determined to ensure that no successor regime, rebel coalition, or foreign actor can challenge its position in the region.
The Israeli strikes represent a significant turning point for Syria, a nation now struggling to rebuild after the fall of Assad.
Syria's internal divisions
The military operation’s scale and focus raise pressing questions about Israel’s intentions and its long-term impact on Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Analysts have drawn comparisons to the chaos seen in Iraq after the US-led invasion and Libya’s fragmented post-Gaddafi reality.
Israel’s occupation of additional Syrian territories near the Golan Heights compounds this uncertainty.
The Golan, a region of strategic and symbolic significance, was annexed by Israel in 1981, a move deemed illegal by the United Nations. Since Assad’s fall, Israel has extended its control, even seizing a UN-monitored buffer zone.
This occupation has sparked no condemnation from western nations, despite UN affirmations of Syrian sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated unequivocally that “the Golan will be part of the State of Israel for eternity”. This stance underscores Israel’s strategy: securing territorial gains while leveraging Syria’s instability to solidify its regional dominance.
Israel’s occupation and military actions are likely to deepen internal divisions within Syria, pitting factions focused on nation-building against those prioritising the liberation of occupied territories. This dynamic mirrors Lebanon’s prolonged struggles under Israeli occupation, where internal divisions hindered stability and governance.
If Syrian factions focused on reconstruction take precedence, they risk losing legitimacy as long as Syrian land remains occupied.
Conversely, prioritising the fight against Israel could lead to early defeats and further chaos, diverting critical resources from nation-building efforts. In either scenario, Israel benefits: a fragmented Syria is less capable of posing a threat to its security and territorial ambitions.
For Syrians, this division represents a cruel paradox. Rebuilding their nation requires prioritising stability and reconstruction, yet doing so under occupation risks alienating significant portions of the population who view resistance as a national imperative.
The resulting fractures will make it difficult for any transitional government to maintain legitimacy and cohesion.
Security vacuum
The destruction of Syria’s military capabilities echoes the dismantling of the Iraqi army during the US invasion, leaving a security vacuum that invites foreign intervention and the rise of non-state actors. Syrian rebels and transitional authorities now face a daunting challenge: rebuilding a functional military while addressing the needs of a fractured population.
Israel’s actions also undermine efforts to reclaim territory controlled by other groups, including the US-backed Kurdish group, the People's Protection Units (YPG). By eroding Syria’s military capacity, Israel ensures prolonged instability, preventing any cohesive effort to challenge its occupation or counterbalance its influence.
Moreover, the Israeli strikes targeted more than just military assets. Intelligence archives were also destroyed, containing data that could have shed light on Assad’s ties to global networks and states, including Israel itself.
Reports of secret agreements between Assad’s government and Israel, allegedly managed through Russian intermediaries, have surfaced in the aftermath of his downfall. These revelations complicate efforts to rebuild trust among Syrians and to establish a new government free from the shadow of Assad’s controversial legacy.
This military degradation creates fertile ground for parallel militias to emerge, some likely focused on resisting Israel rather than contributing to Syria’s reconstruction. Such a development would mirror Libya’s chaotic patchwork of armed factions, with foreign powers supporting competing groups for their own strategic ends.
Israel’s support for Kurdish separatism is part of a broader strategy to divide and weaken its regional rivals
Israel’s strategy aligns with its broader regional objectives, including support for Kurdish elements in Syria.
Israeli officials have openly expressed interest in fostering ties with the Kurdish YPG, a group linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is designated as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US, the EU, Nato and others. This support threatens to further entangle Syria in regional disputes, particularly with Turkey, and to deepen its internal divisions.
The YPG, having previously collaborated with actors as varied as Assad’s government, Iran, Russia and the US, could become another tool in Israel’s strategy towards Syria. This potential partnership risks inflaming tensions between Syria’s ethnic groups, complicating reconstruction efforts and alienating Syrians already wary of perceived foreign manipulation.
Israel’s support for Kurdish separatism is part of a broader strategy to divide and weaken its regional rivals. By encouraging the fragmentation of Syria, Israel diverts attention from its actions in Palestine and Lebanon while ensuring that no unified Syrian state emerges to challenge its territorial ambitions.
This approach mirrors its tactics in Lebanon during the civil war, where Israel fostered alliances with local factions to secure its interests. It could also invite foreign intervention in Syria to resist Israel’s interference and occupation. Iran is a potential actor in this sense.
Regional instability
Turkey, a key regional player, views the YPG as an existential threat. Any Israeli-YPG collaboration would strain relations between Israel and Turkey, potentially escalating into a broader regional conflict.
Such tensions could further destabilise Syria, as external powers exploit the chaos to advance their own agendas.
The current trajectory of Syria evokes grim parallels with other Middle Eastern nations torn apart by foreign interventions and internal divisions.
In Iraq, the dismantling of the national army created a power vacuum that gave rise to insurgent groups and prolonged instability.
In Libya, the fall of Gaddafi led to a fractured state where armed factions, backed by competing foreign powers, vie for control.
In Lebanon, Israeli occupation fostered internal divisions that hindered the country’s recovery from its civil war.
Syria now faces the risk of combining these elements: a weak central government, competing militias and foreign interventions that perpetuate instability.
Israel’s occupation and interventions risk transforming Syria into a fractured state plagued by internal strife, weakened institutions and foreign agendas. This trajectory threatens not only Syria’s future, but also the stability of the broader region and would ultimately backfire and threaten Israel itself in the long run.
To prevent further destabilisation, international actors must push for a re-evaluation of Israel’s policies in Syria.
Supporting Syria’s sovereignty and fostering a genuine path to reconstruction are critical to ensuring the country’s unity and stability. Without such efforts, Syria risks becoming another failed state in a region already marred by conflict and division.
Israel’s actions may offer short-term security advantages, but they are demoralising a population still celebrating the fall of the regime.
Instead of fostering a stable and secure Syria, the long-term outcome may be persistent instability and escalating regional conflicts.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
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