Syrians cannot afford another decade of violence and despair

Syria stands on the brink of another devastating chapter, as renewed conflict threatens to unfreeze years of stalemate. 

The resurgence of opposition forces in the north, coupled with evolving geopolitical dynamics, signals a potential return to mass violence. 

Yet Syria can ill afford a renewal of the large-scale violence that produced the worst conflict in recent times. It is estimated that more than 500,000 people have been killed in the Syrian war, with more than 14 million displaced since 2011. 

The conflict had been somewhat dormant or frozen for more than four years, since the March 2020 ceasefire deal brokered by Russia and Turkey. The surprise offensive by armed opposition forces is the most significant development in the conflict since Russia’s intervention in Syria in 2015. 

As has been the case for the past 13 years, it is the civilians who will bear the brunt of the return to violence. 

Tens of thousands of Syrians have already been displaced, with many Syrian Kurds fleeing Aleppo for areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, fearing for their safety. And there are no signs that the conflict will abate, as regime forces prepare for prolonged fighting in the central and northern parts of the country. 

The situation remains in constant flux and highly unpredictable. There are legitimate fears on all sides of the potential for a scorched-earth strategy by the Assad regime, or of rule by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) across all of Syria. 

Without immediate action, we could see a severe humanitarian catastrophe, leading to countless more deaths, the displacement of millions more people and the destruction of towns and cities. 

Opportunities for diplomacy

So far, the lightning-fast developments in Syria have been determined on the battlefield - but there are opportunities for diplomacy and mediation to de-escalate the situation. Reports of a likely high-level meeting in Qatar on the sidelines of the Doha Forum, potentially involving Turkey, Iran and other stakeholders, highlight the opportunity in the coming weeks for multilevel diplomatic engagement on Syria. 

As leaders gather, there are several key considerations that should guide a principled approach to humanitarian diplomacy and mediation.

The protection of civilians must remain the central priority in any mediation. Despite its contentious and extremist reputation, HTS has occasionally demonstrated a level of engagement with the rules of war, as seen in its distribution of warnings before attacks late last year. 

Diplomacy and mediation will likely prove far more effective than the response of reconstruction in the aftermath of yet another round of destructive warfare

But such efforts remain sporadic, and HTS has proven to be notoriously difficult to reach for humanitarian diplomacy aimed at persuading norms-compliance by non-state armed groups. Nonetheless, it has appeared increasingly amenable to such considerations, as seen in its call to respect minorities, or its willingness to enter into negotiations with other factions to avoid further bloodshed.  

This underscores the urgent need for structured communication with both HTS and the Assad regime, even if only at a minimal level, to press for adherence to international humanitarian law and the rules of war. 

These efforts should aim to mitigate harm to civilians, ensure safe passage for aid and uphold basic protections in conflict areas. A lack of such engagement risks further entrenching impunity and escalating violence. 

While comprehensive mediation may require multiparty collaboration, immediate de-escalation measures, including dialogue on civilian protection, are an essential first step towards preventing further atrocities and addressing Syria’s humanitarian crisis.

Evolving dynamics

At the same time, multiparty mediation must be pursued to address larger fundamental issues. As Syria’s conflict sees renewed violence, the Astana process, led by Turkey and Russia, appears ill-suited to address the evolving dynamics. 

Both mediators are deeply entangled in the conflict, raising questions about their ability to lead an effective de-escalation effort. Moreover, the Astana process itself has failed to resolve the underlying drivers of the conflict, despite being the only diplomatic game in town for years.

The regional political landscape has also shifted significantly in recent years, with normalisation efforts between Arab states and the Assad regime raising hopes for stability, while simultaneously emboldening the regime’s hardline tactics. 

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Meanwhile, key players such as Turkey, Iran and Russia have recalibrated their strategies in response to evolving domestic and geopolitical priorities. This fluid environment presents both challenges and opportunities for multiparty mediation.

While no single actor in the region can claim full neutrality, Syria’s evolving conflict demands multiparty mediation that leverages the distinct capabilities of various third parties to engage key factions in Syria, as well as crucial international players, including Turkey, Iran, Russia and the US.

Qatar’s diplomatic reach has been instrumental in bridging divides in other protracted conflicts, such as Libya, where it transitioned from supporting one side to facilitating dialogue between divided factions. Similar multi-actor efforts will be critical in Syria, where the stakes for civilians and the humanitarian crisis continue to escalate. Mediation must prioritise civilian protection and de-escalation, creating a path towards compromise that prevents further devastation. 

It is an old adage that prevention is better than cure. In the context of Syria today, humanitarian diplomacy and mediation will likely prove far more effective than the response of reconstruction in the aftermath of yet another round of destructive warfare. This is all the more important given the political constraints on mobilising international support for reconstruction, or even early recovery, in the context of Syria. 

Regional and international diplomatic efforts focused on Syria must therefore be ramped up immediately, rather than appearing suddenly and reactively after a dramatic escalation of conflict. Mediation must prioritise a political resolution that protects civilians, prevents further displacement, returns refugees safely to their homes and provides a pathway to sustainable peace. 

The stakes are too high for continued diplomatic delay. Syria’s people cannot afford another decade of violence and despair.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.