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Trump's first days signal support for the most extreme pro-Israel forces

US president's sanctions reversals, arms shipments and appointment of hawks will likely undermine the ceasefire and empower Israel's hardliners
A man walks under a banner addressed to the US president reading “Congratulations Donald Trump, Israel loves you”, in Jerusalem, on 24 January 2025 (John Wessels/AFP)
A man walks under a banner addressed to the US president reading “Congratulations Donald Trump, Israel loves you”, in Jerusalem, on 24 January 2025 (John Wessels/AFP)

When Donald Trump returned to the White House last week, he immediately revived his habit of bombarding the public and media with a torrent of comments and actions, making it difficult for each one to be fully scrutinised.

But when it came to the Middle East, it was easy enough to extract the few statements he made.

They offered some clues as to how the new Trump administration might handle the issue - and it isn't promising.

Never one to shy away from theatrics or float fantastical ideas, Trump had his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff suggest the notion of shipping the people of Gaza - at least some of them - off to Indonesia.

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Jakarta was understandably surprised to learn of this idea through the media.

It's the sort of proposal that Trump and his team promote, hoping someone might take it seriously. If that doesn't happen, it at least serves to add to the confusion surrounding his actual policy, or lack thereof.

'Illusion of action'

Amid his flurry of executive orders upon resuming office, Trump reversed the sanctions that his predecessor, Joe Biden, had imposed on some of the most radical and violent Israeli settlers in the West Bank.

The sanctions themselves were largely symbolic; they barely deterred the targeted individuals, let alone anyone else. But rescinding them - like issuing them in the first place - was also a symbolic act.

For Biden, sanctioning the settlers was an attempt to create the illusion of action against Israeli excesses.

Trump is sending a clear message to the most extreme forces in both Israel and the US that they are to be encouraged, protected, and even embraced

It seemed to carry little political cost since these extreme settlers are known to be unruly and have even turned against Israeli soldiers.

As such, they are disliked by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and seen as rogues by many of Israel's supporters in the US.

In rescinding the sanctions, Trump is sending a clear message to the most extreme forces in both Israel and the US that they are to be encouraged, protected, and perhaps even embraced.

This is not unlike the message he conveyed by pardoning those involved in the Capitol insurrection attempt on 6 January 2021.

Rescinding these sanctions will also be a welcome move for many within Trump's new diplomatic and national security teams.

Figures such as the Christian Zionist extremist and new ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee; new Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth; and nominee for Ambassador to the United Nations, Elise Stefanik, will be pleased to see this largesse extended to their Israeli allies.

Ceasefire deal

Of greater concern than Trump's swift reversal of these meagre sanctions is his expression of pessimism regarding the future of the ceasefire that, at least for the moment, halted the genocide in Gaza.

After briefly basking in the glow of claiming credit for the ceasefire, Trump responded to a reporter's question about his confidence in the agreement's durability by saying, "That's not our war; it's their war. But I'm not confident."

Trump's words carry troubling implications.


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It was clear, even to the most optimistic observer, that the three-phase ceasefire and hostage exchange plan would require attention and political pressure from the United States if it were to succeed.

The plan presents far too many opportunities for opponents and sceptics - whether Israeli or Palestinian - to undermine and destroy the process. Palestinians have little incentive to do so; Israel does.

Trump, too, has no apparent reason to press Israel to continue with the agreement after the first phase. He will have achieved what he wanted, which was credit for the ceasefire and for the release of dozens of Israeli hostages.

Beyond that, his words suggest that he sees little value in pressing Israel against the wishes of his own domestic base.

While Trump has expressed a desire to see all Israeli hostages freed, his national security adviser, Mike Waltz, confirmed Netanyahu's claim that Trump had assured him Israel could resume attacking Gaza if negotiations for the second phase failed.

That confirmation, combined with Trump's own words about the ceasefire, makes pessimism inevitable.

Weapons flow

Israel's ambassador to the United States, Michael Herzog, told reporters he expects the Trump administration to lift the hold Biden placed on a shipment of 2,000 so-called "bunker buster" bombs to Israel.

This, too, is largely a symbolic gesture by Trump, much like it was for Biden - at least in the short term. However, Trump's reversal is far more significant, especially in the long run.

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The bunker busters were withheld as political theatre, a move by Biden to show he was "protesting" Israel's invasion of Rafah last year. Withholding the bombs had no real impact on Israel's military actions. Biden had hoped the gesture would signal some attempt to restrain Israel.

His effort was a failure but became a talking point for Netanyahu, who occasionally referenced the issue of arms being withheld from Israel.

Trump's swift decision to send the bombs makes a clear statement to both Hamas and Iran.

The message to Iran is an obvious provocation. It's well known that Israel wants these bombs for their potential use in an attack on Iran's underground nuclear facilities.

This does not mean an attack on Iran is imminent, or any more likely than it was a week ago. But it is designed to send a threatening message to Tehran.

Trump's team, composed overwhelmingly of people with extremely hawkish views on Iran, will be keenly interested in how the Iranian government - especially with a president who has expressed interest in reopening diplomacy with the United States - responds.

The reversal of the hold on the bombs sends a clear signal that Trump has no intention of deviating from Biden's unyielding commitment to the steady flow of arms to Israel

For Hamas and other regional actors, the reversal of the hold on the bombs sends a clear signal that Trump has no intention of deviating from Biden's unyielding commitment to the steady flow of arms to Israel.

Any hopes of Trump scaling back arms gifts or sales to Israel should be dispelled immediately.

The military aid the United States provides Israel is almost entirely spent on American-made weapons, enriching US defence corporations. That's a massive windfall for the American defence sector, and Trump will almost certainly remain committed to maintaining that flow of taxpayer money into the private sector.

Anyone who might have thought Trump would continue to pressure Netanyahu to maintain the ceasefire should reconsider.

The president's commitment to the uninterrupted flow of weapons to Israel and his comments distancing himself and the US from the genocide in Gaza make it clear: Trump is not going to stop Israel from dominating the Palestinians or from asserting itself as the regional hegemon over its neighbours in Lebanon, Syria, and elsewhere.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

Mitchell Plitnick, a political analyst, and writer is the president of ReThinking Foreign Policy and runs the Cutting Through newsletter and video channel on Substack. He is the author, with Marc Lamont Hill, of Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics. Mitchell’s previous positions include vice president at the Foundation for Middle East Peace, Director of the US Office of B’Tselem: The Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories, and Co-Director of Jewish Voice for Peace.
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