Is Turkey on the brink of peace with the Kurds?
Last October, a surprising gesture by Devlet Bahceli, the leader of Turkey’s Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, marked the beginning of what could be a transformative era for the country.
His handshake with deputies from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy (DEM) party, followed by his ground-breaking statements - which included inviting imprisoned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan to “come and speak” in parliament, and saying “Turks and Kurds must love each other” - signalled a potential shift in Turkey’s approach to the Kurdish issue.
While Bahceli’s rhetoric emphasised ending terrorism, it also opened the door to resolving the Kurdish question through political means. This unexpected move has since dominated Turkey’s political agenda, amid the possibility of a new peace process taking shape.
This process gained momentum as the government recently facilitated contact between Ocalan and a DEM delegation.
Ocalan has expressed his willingness to play a role in securing peace, and all eyes are now on him, as he is expected to soon make a pivotal call for the PKK to lay down its arms.
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The success of this initiative hinges not only on Ocalan’s statement, but also on the PKK’s response, which will likely be influenced by developments in Syria.
The ongoing process is not a comprehensive solution to the social and political dimensions of the Kurdish issue; it is a disarmament initiative aimed at ending PKK violence. Erdogan has long treated these as two separate issues.
But while the government focuses on disarming the PKK, a successful outcome could pave the way for broader democratisation and a renewed political agenda.
Political crisis
If the PKK disarms, the justification for repressive measures, such as arresting politicians on terrorism charges, would be weakened. This could create space for more open public debate and democratic politics.
Along with Ocalan, jailed Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas and the DEM party appear to support the process, recognising its potential to unlock new political options. But scepticism remains.
Is this a calculated political move, or does it signal the beginning of a new political era?
Many have questioned whether this initiative is a genuine attempt at peace, or merely a political manoeuvre. Turkey’s political landscape has been in crisis for years, failing to address the country’s most pressing issues. The electorate, while keeping the ruling government in power, has signalled a desire for change.
The Kurdish issue, which intersects with many of Turkey’s challenges - economic inequality, democratic deficiencies and social polarisation - offers an opportunity to build a new political framework. Addressing this issue could help to solve broader systemic problems.
The economic and human costs of the Kurdish conflict have been immense. Decades of security-focused policies have failed to resolve the issue, instead eroding freedoms, polarising society, and undermining the rule of law.
Some critics argue that democracy seems secondary to economic concerns - but without democratic governance, stability and prosperity remain elusive. Resolving the Kurdish issue is not just a moral imperative, but also a strategic necessity for Turkey’s future.
Unexpected pivot
Bahceli’s unexpected pivot has raised questions about his motives. Is this a calculated political move, or does it signal the beginning of a new political era?
Since the formation of the AKP-MHP alliance, Bahceli has been perceived as an obstacle to resolving the Kurdish issue. His recent statements, however, suggest a willingness to support a solution. Whether this is a historic opportunity or a tactical manoeuvre, it is a chance that must be seized.
Bahceli’s consistent stance since October, coupled with the government’s facilitation of talks with Ocalan, lends credibility to the possibility of a genuine shift. But the ultimate direction of this process will depend on the actions of key political actors, including Erdogan.
While Bahceli has the luxury of making bold statements, Erdogan bears the responsibility of implementing any potential agreement. His cautious approach reflects the high stakes.
The regional context, particularly developments in Syria, will play a critical role in shaping this process. Shifting dynamics have significantly influenced the PKK’s position in Syria, where the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led group, remains a key player. Turkey and the new Syrian administration have been negotiating the future of the SDF, including its military structure and administrative framework.
One of the central issues is whether the SDF’s fighters will integrate into the Syrian army or retain a distinct military presence. The outcome will have a direct impact on the PKK’s stance and its response to Ocalan’s anticipated call for disarmament.
Critical opportunity
Another contentious issue is the administrative structure of Kurdish-majority regions in Syria. While Turkey and the Syrian government advocate for a unitary state, the SDF seeks a decentralised model that allows for local governance. Resolving these disputes will shape broader regional dynamics and influence the prospects for peace in Turkey.
Ocalan’s statement was initially expected to be made on 15 February. The significance of this date - the anniversary of his capture in 1999 - would have added further weight to the moment, potentially transforming it into a day to celebrate the “big peace” rather than marking the “big international conspiracy”, a term in the PKK’s lexicon to describe Ocalan’s capture.
But that did not happen, and his statement is now anticipated on Thursday. Regardless of the date, whether this statement becomes a historic turning point or remains a symbol of continued conflict, will depend on both the clarity of Ocalan’s message and broader developments in Syria.
A strong, unequivocal statement from Ocalan could pressure the PKK to comply, while ambiguity could allow the group to delay or reject disarmament.
The initiative launched by Bahceli has evolved into a political process, with Erdogan’s reservations easing in light of regional developments. Its success will depend on the quality of political leadership and the willingness of all stakeholders to engage constructively. Critics who fear the process could lead to an anti-democratic outcome must actively participate to ensure transparency and accountability.
The Kurdish issue remains at the heart of Turkey’s political, social and economic challenges. While the current process is not a comprehensive solution, it represents a critical opportunity to address decades of conflict and build a more inclusive and democratic future.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
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