Why Turkey-EU relations need a fundamental rethink
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week highlighted the importance of Turkey to the EU, noting that in light of recent developments, it is becoming “increasingly impossible” for Europe to remain an effective global actor without Ankara.
“To put it plainly, establishing European security in the absence of [Turkey] is inconceivable,” Erdogan said. “We expect our European friends to face this reality and move forward with our full membership process with a visionary perspective.”
Although overly optimistic on Turkey’s prospects of full EU membership, Erdogan’s words resonate amid a clear shift in the global landscape - one that threatens to permanently fracture the transatlantic relationship, forcing Brussels to distance itself from Washington and foster closer relations with others.
This offers an opportunity for Brussels and Ankara to deepen their cooperation.
For more than a month, EU leaders have been grappling with the chaotic leadership of US President Donald Trump, who is not only bent on a trade war, but also appears set to dismantle the very security architecture upon which European countries have relied for decades.
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In the first few weeks of his presidency, Trump has aligned with Russia on Ukraine, lambasted the EU, and announced plans to impose tariffs of 25 percent on imports from the bloc.
Seemingly caught off guard, European leaders have scrambled to hold emergency meetings. Both French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer made futile, last-ditch attempts to patch things up with Trump. The EU’s high representative was snubbed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while the European Parliament president made a desperate final plea in Washington.
Indispensable partner
But the public dressing-down of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office finally seemed to shake European leaders awake to the fracture in the transatlantic relationship.
The new realities of the Trump era call for a radical change in approach from Brussels if the EU wants to be, as it has indicated, “more capable and better equipped to deal with immediate and future challenges to its security”.
On Thursday, a Special European Council meeting was scheduled to be held as a follow-up to an informal EU leaders’ retreat last month that focused on European defence and strategic partnerships.
The short-term interests of a few member states should not take precedence over the long-term interests of the EU as a whole
Discussing the tenets of a post-Trump European security architecture requires EU leaders to understand and acknowledge that Turkey, as a key regional actor, is a uniquely indispensable partner. This fact seems to be have been gradually recognised by various European leaders.
Turkey boasts Nato’s second-largest army, and it is steadily increasing its defence and security budget. Its defence industry is making tremendous strides, with its products being procured across the EU, including in Spain, Portugal, Poland, Romania, Estonia, Croatia and Hungary.
Yet Ankara often faces significant opposition from certain EU member states who sometimes undermine the bloc’s broader interests, such as support for Ukraine, and whose commitment to the EU seems to fluctuate.
Despite these challenges, Turkish defence companies continue to expand their footprint in the EU’s defence market through technology transfers and even major strategic acquisitions and partnerships.
Turkey and Russia are strategic competitors who are sometimes compelled to cooperate. On several occasions, Ankara has confronted Moscow without western support, and often even in spite of western support for Russia.
Turkey has been consistently outspoken on Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity since 2014, and has provided Kiev with weapons without imposing any restrictions on their use.
In addition, Turkey did not hesitate to close its straits to Russian warships, helped to negotiate the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and even built corvettes for the Ukrainian Navy, while still maintaining ties with Moscow.
Turkey is the only country uniquely positioned to be seen by both Ukraine and Russia as a peace broker, negotiation host, and security guarantor.
Tailored approach
But as Turkey’s potential role in a new European defence and security architecture becomes increasingly critical, viewing it solely through this lens would be a mistake. Ankara is unlikely to accept a framework limited to defence and security cooperation.
Turkey’s broader strategic significance - in trade, energy and people-to-people mobility - is key to building a pragmatic, priority-driven partnership.
Ankara is an indispensable partner with which the EU needs to cooperate in several fields
The current state of EU-Turkey relations thus needs a fundamental rethink. The stalled accession process, mired in political deadlock from the outset, is no longer viable and should be abandoned. A pragmatic pivot towards an interest-driven model of cooperation is needed.
The modernisation of the EU-Turkey Customs Union and visa liberalisation for example – two of the most discussed topics in EU-Turkey relations – will remain in political gridlock due to European domestic politics.
A customised, comprehensive framework – built around pillars such as a Deep Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) and people-to-people mobility; including an extensive visa facilitation agreement – would provide a new basis for addressing these issues.
The EU’s evolving strategic partnership with India - spanning trade, technology, defence and people-to-people mobility - could serve as a template.
For Turkey, such a framework would be far more advantageous than the current impasse. And while Ankara and Brussels share common ground on issues like Ukraine, their divergent moral stance on Israel highlights one of the many limitations of a hypothetical full membership.
A tailored approach would allow Ankara to cooperate with the EU where their interests align, while maintaining its strategic autonomy on contentious issues. This would also enable Turkey to better navigate complex regional dynamics, particularly where its interests clash with those of certain EU member states.
In the long run, a pragmatic, pillar-based framework would not only revitalise EU-Turkey relations, but also position both sides to address shared challenges more effectively. For Ankara, this would mean accepting the realities of European national politics and their implications for Turkey’s relations with the EU.
Rather than trying to revive a stalled process, Ankara should aim to build its relations with the EU on that basis, recalibrate its policies accordingly, and work on its strategic autonomy.
For Brussels, this would require acknowledging that the short-term interests of a few member states should not take precedence over the long-term interests of the EU as a whole. Ankara is an indispensable partner with which the EU needs to cooperate in several fields.
Reconciling these realities and pursuing a tailored, comprehensive framework is the way forward.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
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