By attacking Venezuela, Trump may have inadvertently united a battered nation

The 3 January US attack on Venezuela and abduction of President Nicolas Maduro shocked the world, and left Venezuelans reeling. Some Venezuelans - especially among the millions who fled the collapsing economy - applauded President Donald Trump’s brazen move. With up to 100 killed by US forces, many did not.

To understand how we got here, it is worth revisiting the tumultuous history of the oil-rich South American country over the last quarter-century. Very often there is a simplistic approach to seeing the country through the lens of its antagonistic relations with the US, rather than as a subject with its own history and internal dynamics.

On my last visit to Venezuela 20 years ago, thousands of socialist activists from around the world gathered in Caracas for the World Social Forum. It was the peak of Hugo Chavez’s prestige as a popular socialist and regional leader. For leftists, it felt like a little bit of heaven in a sea of capitalism.

Chavez became a global hero for challenging US imperialism after he was rescued from a US-backed coup attempt in 2002 by his soldiers and mass protests. 

Following a prolonged strike by employers that seriously damaged the economy from 2002 to 2004, Chavez embarked on a radical programme of “missions” in health, education, adult literacy, and land reform that enriched the lives of millions of Venezuelans. 

Petro socialism

After Chavez removed the old management of the state oil firm PDVSA, it became the main funder of the flagship social programmes that significantly reduced poverty and inequality over the next decade.

In Caracas, I recall a chef at a beach villa coming out of his hut to join his employer, who was complaining about Chavez. This working-class Venezuelan challenged his boss by detailing the government’s economic plans, most likely taken from Chavez’s hours-long ‘Alo Presidente’ broadcasts. 

I watched Chavez go through the national accounts live on TV, page by page. Nothing so unrehearsed and revealing would ever happen in British democracy

From my hotel room, I watched Chavez go through the national accounts live on TV, page by page. Nothing so unrehearsed and revealing would ever happen in British democracy.

But there were signs of problems. One morning, I was pulled into a police booth in Caracas. The policeman, who had cold, dead eyes, questioned me about my "drogas" - just harmless medication - and went through my wallet, pulling out my travellers’ cheques. His fellow officer said in Spanish to his colleague that the cheques had to be signed individually by me - in other words, they were not worth stealing. He let me go. It was a microcosm of a society where corruption was still endemic.

As a Venezuelan researcher explained to me, Venezuela’s petrodollar bonanza was not restricted to those at the top - millions of people benefited in various ways. A dual currency system allowed importers, students and ordinary Venezuelans who could navigate the system access to preferential dollars, priced well below the market rate for bolivars, which could be sold onto the open market for a huge markup.

Industries were nationalised as Chavez sought to move towards socialism, but billions of dollars that should have been invested in them were lost through fictional imports and inflated contracts.

Chavez fell ill in 2011 with an aggressive cancer, and spent many months in Cuba receiving medical treatment, but died in January 2013 aged 58. The country and many around the world mourned.

His chosen successor, Maduro, did not have Chavez’s capacity to seize the moment, or respond to economic and political challenges. He scraped to victory in the 2013 elections, and immediately faced a series of crises.

Conflict, violence, sanctions

In response to escalating levels of violent crime in a country long flooded with arms, the Maduro government deployed special police units to crack down on the gangs in the barrios, leading to the systematic extrajudicial killings of thousands of young men - often shot dead inside their home or on the street, according to UN and Amnesty investigations.

Political conflict between the government and opposition intensified as the oil price fell, shortages increased and corruption within PDVSA bled the economy.

The opposition orchestrated violent street protests in 2014 and again in 2017, paralysing life in Caracas with road blocks, and causing scores of deaths.

Trump says the US will control all revenues from oil sales. This would be a dagger at the heart of the country's economic sovereignty

US-based Venezuelan economist Francisco Rodriguez says between 2012 and 2020, Venezuela’s per capita income declined by 71 percent, the largest peacetime economic contraction in the modern era.

Hyperinflation, mass hunger and migration of millions of Venezuelans began in 2016-18 before the worst of US sanctions, although Rodriguez shows how the political conflict between the opposition and Maduro’s government, combined with US sanctions, caused most of this collapse. 

Having won the 2015 National Assembly election, the right-wing opposition failed to capitalise on their gains, boycotting the 2018 presidential elections. In 2019, the US and European Union unilaterally recognised opposition figure Juan Guaido as president - but the strategy failed spectacularly, as Guaido lacked real support in the country. 

President Trump imposed financial, debt and oil sanctions from 2017 that cut Venezuela off from the world economy, with dire impacts on the country. In 2024, with cajoling by US officials, the opposition united around diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez in the presidential election. He appeared to win decisively, but Maduro claimed victory, arresting more than 2,000 who protested the results in a sweeping crackdown. 

The rise of Delcy Rodriguez

With Maduro and his wife and his wife Cilia Flores in jail in New York after being snatched illegally by the US, all eyes are on the current interim president, Delcy Rodriguez. She is the daughter of a guerrilla leader who founded the revolutionary Liga Socialista party in the 1970s, who was tortured to death by Venezuelan security services in 1976.

As vice president, and economy minister since 2020, Rodriguez is credited with rescuing the country’s economy after its collapse, through what one analyst called “perestroika without glasnost”, deregulation reforms that reduced inflation and benefited the new state-linked business class. She and her influential brother Jorge, who is president of the National Assembly, forged links with Venezuela’s allies China, Iran and Turkey.

The Miami Herald reported in October that Rodriguez and Jorge sought to present themselves to Washington as a “more acceptable” alternative to Maduro. Through intermediaries in Qatar, talks took place with US officials to negotiate a peaceful transition, with Maduro’s blessing. But it wasn’t to be. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, chief adviser Stephen Miller and Trump were set on the military operation to abduct Maduro. For Cuban-American Rubio, taking down Venezuela is the first stop on the way to removing Cuba’s communist government.

Miller spelled out the new Nietzschean Trump doctrine to CNN last week that led to the attack on Venezuela: “We live in a world, the real world… that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws of the world.”

Can the deal with Trump work?

Eva Golinger, a friend and one-time adviser to Chavez who fell out with the Maduro government, says the deal between Trump and Rodriguez - which would see most Venezuelan oil go to the US instead of China - could see sanctions ease and conditions for Venezuelans improve. “However,” she warns, “the biggest wild card is Trump. His volatility and lack of strategy shows he can change his mind at any time. It is a very dangerous time for Venezuela.”

Trump discarded leading opposition figure Maria Corina Machado, the right-wing, pro-Israel Nobel Prize winner, saying she did not have enough support domestically. Now, he may meet her after she offered to give him her prize.

US oil giant Exxon has made it clear that for Trump’s plan to work, Caracas will have to capitulate to its demands for superprofits from Venezuela’s oil

While Trump bombastically declared that he is in control of Venezuela, in Caracas, Venezuelan ministers remain in charge, and “colectivos” - popular militias - are making their presence felt on the streets.

Venezuela’s military could not resist the overwhelming technological and military superiority of the US operation on 3 January, with the US suffering no casualties and killing scores of Venezuelan and Cuban elite troops. 

But after more than two decades of US regime change operations against the Bolivarian government, it has built a unified military command, with the military deeply embedded in oil, gold mining and other sectors, giving it a direct economic interest in keeping the current order.

Further, regardless of their views of Maduro, many Venezuelans were shocked by the US raid, and do not want to be ruled by America. The opposition in the National Assembly voted overwhelmingly last week to condemn the attacks.

On Friday, Trump said a “previously expected second Wave of Attacks” would not be necessary, as the government was cooperating with Washington after Caracas released several political prisoners. 

But there are major obstacles to this working. US oil giant Exxon has made it clear that for Trump’s plan to be attractive to oil majors, Caracas will have to capitulate to its demands for superprofits from Venezuela’s oil by ripping up its controls over revenues. Trump says the US will take all revenues from oil sales. This would be a dagger at the heart of the country's economic sovereignty.

A Venezuelan source says there have been daily mobilisations in support of the government in Caracas and other major cities. They added: "Even before the bombing occurred - in the first half of December - there were also protests with a relatively good turnout against the American aggression represented by the [US naval blockade]."

Trump may have inadvertently united Venezuelans through attacking the country - something almost impossible to imagine a few months ago.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.