Monday night analysis by Ragip Soylu

Now the votes have been cast and counted, we’re closing our Turkey elections live blog.

We’ve had readers from all over the world with huge interest in these pivotal polls, thanks for stopping by!

Before we take a two-week blogging break (see you for the runoff on 28 May everyone), MEE’s Turkey bureau chief Ragip Soylu has provided a farewell analysis to take us away:

Turkey’s 14 May presidential election will officially go to a runoff in two weeks’ time, but many believe the likely winner is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

He is only 0.5 percent short of the required 50 percent threshold and his main competitor Kemal Kilicdaroglu will struggle to capture votes from the Turkish nationalist citizens who backed breakaway ultra-nationalist opposition candidate Sinan Ogan.

Kilicdaroglu failed to energise his base on Monday, even after releasing a video on Twitter where he is seen saying he’ll be there until the end for his voters and slamming a table.

That table bashing didn’t feel typical Kilicdaroglu. What his voters were actually expecting was to see him on national TV announcing a new wave of campaigns and rallies before facing Erdogan down on 28 May.

Kilicdaroglu made his first move on Sunday night, making a phone call to Ogan to congratulate him and warm him up for future negotiations, hoping to get his endorsement.

However, Ogan has been ambivalent about what he actually wants. Last week, he said he wouldn’t support the opposition if they have anything to do with the pro-Kurdish parties. And then said he wouldn’t want Erdogan to rule any longer.

But it might not be up to him anyway. His voters are mostly former Erdogan backers. They might just go back home.

In any case, this the first presidential election since 2014 in which Erdogan couldn’t get an outright majority in the first round. But he was able to retain a majority at parliament with his nationalist allies in the MHP.

The president rejoiced on Sunday night with his supporters. After a cost of living crisis, the deadliest earthquake in the republic’s history, and being 20 years in power, he still managed to get the support of more than 49 percent of the electorate.

Voters fiercely critiqued him all year but still back him, because they still don’t see a credible alternative to Erdogan that they trust to fight Kurdish armed groups and govern the country in a manner they find befitting.