Analysis: How each candidate campaigned

Millions of Turkish voters began flocking to polling stations across the country as incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan set out to secure a third presidential term in a fierce race against opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Reporting from the capital Ankara, Middle East Eye's Turkey bureau chief Ragip Soylu said schools and other public buildings saw an influx of people arriving to cast their ballots in the highly contested election. 

While a high voter turnout is expected, polling stations seemed calm and orderly in the early hours of the morning.  

Notably, the run-off campaign witnessed significantly less polarisation and contention compared with earlier stages, as both candidates refrained from holding large rallies. Instead, they opted for intimate gatherings, hall meetings and strategic television appearances.

Kilicdaroglu’s initial silence, which lasted four days following the setback in the first round, dealt a demoralising blow to his supporters. 

Subsequently, he took action by dismissing his campaign team and adopting a Turkish nationalist stance with an anti-refugee sentiment based on fear of the future. Posters demanding the expulsion of Syrians adorned overpasses and roadside kiosks.

Erdogan persisted in his criticism of the opposition, accusing them of aligning with “terrorist groups”, albeit in a less outspoken and indignant manner, as part of his calculated campaign strategy.

Interestingly, both candidates sought to forge alliances with anti-refugee Turkish politicians. Erdogan secured the support of the third-place presidential candidate, Sinan Ogan, an ultranationalist who garnered 5.17 percent of the vote in the initial round.

Kilicdaroglu struck a deal with ultranationalist Umit Ozdag, a key ally of Ogan, to mobilise support for his campaign. Ozdag articulated specific demands regarding the handling of refugees, including their expulsion from the country within a year. 

However, his insistence on appointing trustees to municipalities associated with alleged terrorist activities unsettled supporters of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democracy Party (HDP). 

While the HDP announced its support for Kilicdaroglu, the impact on voter turnout in the predominantly Kurdish provinces remains uncertain.

Lastly, maintaining high levels of voter engagement will be crucial for both candidates. With a significant 2.5 million-vote margin separating them, each contender is banking on their respective high turnout rates. 

Kilicdaroglu endeavoured to mobilise young voters through a captivating appearance on the popular YouTube channel Babala, while Erdogan leveraged his well-organised party grassroots and newly elected MPs while dominating traditional media appearances to achieve a similar goal.