Between hope and fear: 25 years on from Sudan's coup

Exactly 25 years ago on Monday, Colonel Omar al-Bashir swept to power in Sudan at the head of a bloodless military coup. Bashir has remained the country's leader since that day, with the country seeing fundamental changes under his rule.

The coup, launched by a group of military officers against then prime minister Sadiq al-Mahdi, was dubbed the "Salvation Revolution", or "thawrat al-ingaz" by the new post-coup government and its supporters.

However, its detractors have another name for it: "thawrat al-kayzan". Kayzan is the metal cup used by water vendors in the streets of Sudan's cities, from which customers drink.

The nickname is a tongue-in-cheek reference to the fact that, when the "Salvation" government came to power, they referenced a Qur'anic sura which says that God's knowledge is greater and more vast than all the world's seas. According to the new government, they represented one kayzan, or cup, of that infinite knowledge.

Undoubtedly the most visible change to take place in a quarter-century of life under the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) has been the secession of South Sudan, which was born as a formally independent state in July 2012. Over 98 percent of people in the south voted for partition. However, economic autonomy for the oil-rich south has proven to be an economic disaster for the northern government in Khartoum, and for some the anniversary of the 1989 coup is a reminder of what has been lost.

Not only has the map of Sudan been irrevocably altered under the leadership of Bashir, Sudan’s longest-serving president, but the skyline of the capital has also been transformed, with skyscrapers shooting up in the wealthiest downtown districts and imported luxury cars trundling around the tarmacked roads of central Khartoum.

Despite decades-long punitive sanctions imposed by the US, Sudan has managed to find close trading partners in China, Russia and Japan. The wealth of the boom years of the early 2000s was not spread successfully, though; around half of Khartoumites live below the poverty line, while in North Darfur in the country’s east, the figure stands at over two-thirds.

More change is afoot. In March 2013 Bashir, now 70 years old, announced his intention to step down after presidential elections in 2015. His NCP, which had previously rejected any suggestions from Bashir that he might retire, has said that it is considering other candidates for the elections.

There are also indications that the state's security apparatus is stepping up its activities. In May 2014 reports surfaced that the founder of a Facebook page called "Bashir's Diary", which published satirical news about the President and had over 9000 Likes, had been arrested.

The arrest of an individual for establishing such a page would be unprecedented in Sudan. However, attempts to drown out dissent appear to be ineffective: there are now 10 pages under the name "Bashir's Diary."

Voices from Sudan

Now, with the NCP mired in a “national dialogue” from which many leading opposition parties have pulled out, and ongoing internal conflicts in areas like Darfur and the Nuba mountains displacing over half a million people in 2013, there are mixed feelings to the 25^th anniversary of the so-called 'Salvation Revolution':

Mohamed, a Sudanese activist and media expert:

Sudan has changed for the worse during these 25 years; we have become beggars, thieves and terrorists in the eyes of the world, even though we are not.

On a personal level, I was and still am hoping to study film making and professional scriptwriting, but it has become impossible because of the political and economic situation. Our hope as a nation was that we could live in peace for the first time, after the [1972] Addis Ababa treaty [that ended the First Sudanese Civil War between north and south and was broken when Bashir’s predecessor President Jaafar Nimeiri declared sharia law throughout the whole country in 1983]. Before this government came to power, we hoped to start more real infrastructure and cultural projects. Now, we are working towards the future, a future that will come after the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan disappear.

My memories of the coup are crystal-clear; I remember Omar al-Bashir’s speech, in which he described how Sudan had “hit rock bottom.” I recall it so clearly because every word he said in 1989 is actually happening now. In 2014, Sudan is at rock bottom.

Taghred al-Senhuri, a Sudanese film-maker and cultural analyst living in the UK:

It is a real shame to have one party ruling a country for 25 years – there have been no real ideas and no real democracy. I myself am a practicing Muslim but I reject the current Islamic regime, which is a corruption of our faith. Before the coup, Islam was never understood in political terms in Sudan. However, I fear immediate change, because all around us is chaos – just look at Syria, Iraq and Egypt. It is a very fragile situation. Sudan seems to be relatively tranquil. Emotionally, one wants change, but at least there is security.

There have been some improvements; Khartoum at least has good roads now. However, if you go into a school you will find children sitting on the floor. The hospitals are pitifully ill-equipped, and are increasingly being privatised. The rich are getting richer, and the poor are getting poorer. Most people who are well off are able to be either because they work in the Gulf, where salaries are much higher, or because they are seen to be part of the ruling regime.

One thing that has changed is the pervasiveness of the security forces – called al-amn in Sudan. This is very toxic; it makes you mistrust the people around you.

Sudan in 2014 is walking a fine balance between fear and hope.

Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation:

The era of Bashir’s rule has simply been 25 years of missed opportunities. The government of the Salvation Revolution came to power to stall the 1972 peace agreement.

Independence for the south was not on the political agenda 25 years ago – Bashir’s government has ended up paying a much higher price because they were not willing to make concessions earlier on.

The quarter-century of NCP rule can be divided into three broad periods, and oil has been a key factor throughout. From its first year in 1989 to 1999, the government tried to survive on a budget of less than $1bn a year. From 2000, to 2011, when profits from the oil fields began to come in, the budget expanded from $900 m to $12 bn. However, the last period, from 2012 to 2014, has seen a historic opportunity for peace, both between North and South and within the northern areas, squandered. The government is now struggling for survival.

Omar, a Sudanese student from Omdurman

Personally, I don’t care at all about this occasion. The date means nothing to me, and even the government has stopped official celebrations of the Salvation Revolution since the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement between North and South.